"At the beginning, the British population was quite eager to help people as we spoke about the Ukrainian crisis. But the entire conflict in Ukraine was sold to the British population on false premises," says Adriel Kasonta, London-based foreign affairs analyst, founder of AK Consultancy, and former chairman of the International Affairs Committee at the Bow Group, the oldest conservative think tank in the UK.
First, this conflict could have been prevented by the West, and most notably by the US and the UK; second, people haven't been informed that anti-Russian sanctions will bite average British citizens, according to the analyst.
Prior to launching its special operation in Ukraine, the Russian government proposed draft security agreements to the US and NATO seeking guarantees for Ukraine's non-admission to the transatlantic military bloc, as well as NATO's non-expansion and non-deployment of forces or weapons in countries that joined the alliance after May 1997. However, Russia's proposals were rejected by the West.
"We have to bear in mind that even though some of these people might be honestly willing to help the refugees from Ukraine or some of them just wanted to use and take advantage of the refugee program, this can't continue longer," he explains. "This can't continue because of the fact that currently, the United Kingdom is in a very poor economic condition. It has been hit by inflation, probably the worst among the G7 countries, and it will only amplify by winter this year."
The consumer prices index, a common gauge for inflation, rose by 13.6% in the 12 months to July 2022, up from 12.7% in June. What's more, the UK inflation is on course to exceed 18% in January as energy prices continue to soar, according to Citi economists. Citi projects that energy bills could rise to £3,717 per year ($4,389) from the current £1,971 for an average household.
Therefore it appears hardly surprising that a recent survey by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) indicated that less than 25% of Britons who have sheltered Ukrainians under the government’s “Homes for Ukraine” refugee scheme would agree to keep housing them for more than a year.
Why Doubling 'Thank You' Payment is Unfair
To tackle the potential collapse of the refugee scheme, Minister of State for Refugees Lord Harrington has asked the Treasury to double the "thank you" payment of £350 ($414.52) a month to £700 ($829), according to The Telegraph.
"I honestly don't believe that the government is financially capable to continue with this, bearing in mind, as I previously highlighted, the cost of living crisis and the stagflation that Europe, including the United Kingdom, will enter before the winter time," says Kasonta. "I'm sure that they don't have money to subsidize this reckless policy of hosting refugees from Ukraine. This will backfire sooner or later. And it is already backfiring, because people are feeling the burden of the cost of living crisis, are feeling the burden of the conflict in Ukraine and the sanctions imposed on Russia, which are boomeranging on the collective West."
On the other hand, doubling the "thank you" payment for those who host Ukrainian refugees would be unfair to those who do not provide shelter to Ukrainians, but nonetheless suffer from the UK prolonging the conflict through weapons supplies to Kiev and maintaining sanctions against Russia, according to the analyst.
"Those people [who host Ukrainian refugees] are receiving money and others are somehow abandoned and left to fight the cost of living crisis," Kasonta says. "I'm myself living in the United Kingdom, and here in London a lot of people are using food banks. In the past years, some people were using food banks, but the scale of using them now has reached tremendous numbers. Many people who you wouldn't even have thought can't afford to eat proper meals are using either food banks, or you can see people diving into the bins during evening hours, searching for food in the bins."
The scholar projects that the increasing economic pressures may lead to "tremendous civil unrest" in the UK and Europe, if the British government and European authorities do not address the problem of the cost of living crisis. "That will lead, probably, to violence on the streets and overthrowing the governments," he remarks.
UK Has Become Subservient Vassal of Its Former Colony
Meanwhile, the UK has been caught in a vicious cycle as the number of refugees is increasing as more weapons are flowing from the UK and other NATO member states to Kiev. Even though the British government's policy is detrimental to the UK's own population, London is continuing to act in line with the US strategy, according to Kasonta.
"We have to bear in mind, first of all, that the proxy war waged by the collective West against Russia in Ukraine is a war to maintain the unipolar moment by the United States," the analyst says. "We have to understand that the United Kingdom, as a close ally of the United States, having a special relationship due to the cultural, linguistic, and other affinities and relations between the British and American people, is willing to go an extra mile in order to help its younger cousin across the pond to fulfill its strategic goals, even to the detriment of its own people."
It is the United States who is benefiting from a NATO proxy war against Russia, according to the analyst. He highlights that the Ukraine crisis is "a perfect example of where the United States is pushing every single country under the bus only in order to maintain its hegemony around the world and stick to the unipolar moment."
"Unfortunately, the United Kingdom, which used to be an empire where the Sun would never set, became a vassal state of the United States, of its own cousin, of its own making," Kasonta says. "It was a penal colony and now it's ruling over the United Kingdom. This is quite astonishing and, I would say, quite cynical to observe how the United Kingdom, which used to be a mighty country, is allowing itself to put its own citizens in such a difficult condition only to satisfy an empire that is in the process of decline."