Conservative UK Prime Minister Liz Truss may be heading for a humiliating defeat at the next general election, according to current polling.
Only 54 percent of British voters who backed the Conservatives at the last election in 2019 say they still support the party, whereas 15 percent have switched to Labour, an exclusive BMG poll for the i newspaper has shown.
The opposition party led by Sir Keir Starmer enjoys a 17-point lead in the polls, with 47 percent of voters backing the Labour party, and 30 percent supporting the Conservatives. The Liberal Democrats are on 9 percent, the Greens on 5 percent and Reform UK on 3 percent, according to the survey.
Furthermore, polling shows Starmer’s personal ratings are much higher than those of Liz Truss, who is almost as unpopular as her predecessor Boris Johnson was towards the end of his tenure.
Surveys of every socioeconomic group, in every region of Britain and in every age group except the over-65s show the British Conservative Party lagging behind Labour.
The Tories can expect just one in eight people aged below 35 to cast their vote for them.
A mere 19 percent of those polled said they were satisfied with Truss’ performance in No 10, and 48 percent were dissatisfied, giving a net rating of -29, says the poll. This is in stark contrast to Starmer, who has a net rating of +9 with 34 percent backing him and 25 percent of voters opposed.
Accordingly, the Labour party could expect a landslide victory at the next general election, according to BMG's Head of Polling, Robert Struthers.
“As market confidence has plummeted, so too have the Conservative prospects for the next general election. If borne out in a general election, a 17-point lead would be enough to give the Labour party a 1997-esque landslide majority,” Struthers said.
30 September 2022, 06:05 GMT
‘Negative First Impression’
Just one in five people approve of the government’s so-called “mini-budget” unveiled on 22 September, the BMG survey revealed.
The Chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, outlined a Growth Plan that offered the biggest tax giveaway in 50 years which will be of overwhelming help to the wealthy, and will initially be paid for out of additional government borrowing. Even though most of the measures tailored to solve the cost of living crisis contained in the fiscal statement are popular with the public, the package is disliked overall. Broad support has been shown by British voters for the energy bill support, scrapping the rise in national insurance, cutting the basic rate of income tax and reducing stamp duty, the survey revealed.
But ditching the top 45p rate of income tax and ending the cap on bankers’ bonuses rendered the fiscal statement overwhelmingly unpopular. Only 18 percent of voters feel positive about the support package and 55 percent are negative, according to the BMG poll.
“Rather than a so-called political honeymoon, Liz Truss has left a very negative first impression, with half of Britons already saying they are dissatisfied with her leadership and just one in five satisfied,” Struthers said.
Financial markets responded to the extra borrowing needed to fund the huge tax cuts contained in the fiscal statement with a fit of the jitters, sending the pound sterling plunging below $1.11 for the first time since 1985.
“The reaction of the public to the mini-budget mirrors that of the market - disastrous. Our polling shows voters from across the political spectrum have reacted almost uniformly negatively. Worryingly for Truss and Kwarteng, this includes almost half those who voted Conservative in 2019,” BMG’s Research Manager Jack Curry summed up.
He specified that the tax cuts benefitting the highest earners and removing the cap on bankers’ bonuses have “toxified the other more popular measures.”
The BMG poll comes as a plethora of other recent surveys have shown an even larger lead for the Labour party.
Labour has gained a 33-point vote intention lead over the ruling Conservatives, a YouGov Poll of more than 1,700 British adults revealed. This is the UK opposition party’s highest lead recorded in any published poll since the late Nineties. The survey, conducted on 28 to 29 September, showed UK Prime Minister Liz Truss’ Tories have plummeted down seven points to 21 percent of the present intention of voters.