The $31 trillion total debt amounts to $93,419 per person, and the government now holds 68% more debt than the combined consumer debt of every household in the United States.
Those figures do not account for unfunded liabilities the government has accrued, primarily through obligations to Social Security and Medicare participants.
The United States government has been in debt for most of its existence, especially after WWII. But that debt has been kicked into high gear this millennium, with the War on Terror and massive trade deficits making it difficult for Congress to spend within its means while still providing enough for its citizens so that we don’t eat the rich. How long can the United States keep up its spending and what effects will it have is a matter up for debate.
In many ways, the United States is in a better situation than most countries, despite its massive debts. The dollar is the primary global reserve currency, which gives the United States significant advantages when it comes to paying debts. Since most international debts, including debts the US government owes, are denominated in dollars, the Federal Reserve can, in theory, print enough greenbacks to pay off whatever debt the government owes. While other countries have central banks that are able to do the same, their debts are also usually denominated in US dollars. If they print too much, it will inflate their currency and it would cost more to pay their debts, which would require more printing and so on. However, if the US dollar loses value, it doesn’t matter in regard to the debt. For the United States, a dollar of debt is a dollar of debt, even if the dollar has lost value.
As Dr. Paul Craig Roberts, the assistant secretary of the US Treasury during the Reagan administration, explained to Sputnik, “Debt for the reserve currency country is not the same as for countries whose debt is denominated in foreign currency. As the US debt is denominated in US dollars, the debt, however large, can always be paid as dollars can be printed.”
Furthermore, debt paid to foreign governments shields the US Dollar from inflation somewhat. That money is sent overseas and very little of it makes it into the US economy, which means it does not increase demand the same way money spent nationally would. The debt does, however, make it into the global economy, which can have an effect on prices at home.
Regardless, inflation is increasing. Partially, that is because debts aren’t just paid, they are first spent. That spending increases demand and therefore inflation. As Roberts says, the dollar being the reserve currency “permits extravagance that would wreck other currencies,” but that does not mean it is invincible.
Furthermore, Russia, China, and other countries have been signaling that they may ditch the dollar as the global reserve currency and move towards more regional reserve currencies. If they did that, it would be disastrous for the dollar, and Roberts believes that is one reason the United States has taken an aggressive approach to China and Russia.
The Federal Reserve has been attempting to combat inflation by raising interest rates. This should slow domestic borrowing and therefore investment and demand. But if spending from Congress continues, that only fixes part of the problem.
Tom Luongo, a financial and political commentator, says this puts “the Fed and Congress at odds with each other.” He believes that if Congress continues to spend at this rate, the United States “will enter a very ugly inflationary cycle that the Fed is powerless to contain.”
Luongo notes that due to increased interest rates, we can expect to see assets that were inflated through easy borrowing deflate over time, including bonds, stocks, real estate, and mid-to-high-end consumer goods. However, he believes that commodity prices: oil, gas, metals, and food, will continue to rise. As he notes, those commodities are the primary cause of the inflation Americans are experiencing today.
One major cause of spending has been the foreign policy of the government. While funding Ukraine, as Roberts points out, is just a drop in the bucket compared to total spending, military spending as a whole has made up a substantial portion of the budget, especially since the War on Terror began after the September 11th terrorist attacks.
Counting regular military spending, veterans affairs and foreign aid, the total military budget for the United States is $1.168 trillion per year. That does not include related spending, like money spent on the intelligence budget that funds three letter organizations like the CIA, FBI, and NSA as well as military intelligence organizations like Special Operations Command (SOCOM) and the Office of Naval Intelligence. Adding those increases the bill by another $65.6 billion.
The entirety of the discretionary budget for 2022 was $1.52 trillion. For comparison, The Environmental Protection Agency receives $11.2 billion in funding. The Department of Energy receives $46.1 billion in funding. Even welfare – often cited as a cause of inflation – is dwarfed by the military budget. The total annual bill for all government assistance programs (Social Security and Medicare excluded as those are self-funded and not entitlements) including SNAP (food stamps) SSI assistance, child tax credits, energy assistance for low-income households, refugee assistance, and dozens of other programs, is $700.5 billion for the federal government.
Cuts need to be made if the US government ever wants to get out of the debt hole it has dug itself into. The biggest piece of the pie is right there, and it could be cut without affecting the vulnerable population in this country that relies on government assistance. But that may be difficult with the warmongers in office right now, as Luongo points out: “Congress abdicated all of its responsibilities towards foreign policy to the president two decades ago after 9/11.”
It is critical that reforms are made before countries ditch the dollar as the primary global reserve currency. Without that advantage, things could go very badly, very quickly.