"Liz Truss has resigned as prime minister of the United Kingdom. What has been interesting is the speed with which this has come around. Earlier in the week, she was talking about fighting the next general election, which is still likely to be in December 2024. So, a lot has gone on in a very short period of time that has actually undermined her," said Alistair Jones, associate professor of politics at De Montfort University in the UK.
Clouds started gathering on Truss' horizon after then-Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng, her close ally, unveiled his tax-cut mini-budget which immediately sent markets into meltdown. The pound sterling fell to its lowest-ever level against the greenback. The market chaos, however, wasn't unforeseeable. Previously, Rishi Sunak, who competed with Truss for the British prime ministership, warned that her plan wouldn't fly.
"[M]any of the policies that she wanted to implement, Rishi Sunak pointed out, were fundamentally flawed," noted Jones. "And what is interesting is that Sunak's predictions came to pass. You can't have unfunded tax cuts while also increasing public spending, and then not to have the Office for Budget Responsibility examine those plans so they could actually provide an impartial, independent commentary on it all. That was a huge mistake leading to the sacking of Kwasi Kwarteng, her chancellor."
Having failed to calm the markets, Truss fired Kwarteng after less than six weeks in the job, and backpedalled on her ambitious tax-cut policy. Jeremy Hunt, a former health secretary and foreign secretary, was announced as the new chancellor.
"[R]eplacing [Kwarteng] with Jeremy Hunt was something of a surprise, really, because Hunt was not a supporter of Liz Truss, even though - like her - he believed in huge tax cuts," the professor continued. "What he did instead was trash her entire economic plan. So, almost all of her policies were basically thrown out of the window by Jeremy Hunt."
According to The Spectator, a right-leaning British outlet, Hunt repudiated Truss' mini-budget and started to work on a medium-term financial strategy at the Treasury, while operating in tandem with Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England. A newly-empowered Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) hailed Hunt's approach, since "each of these institutions – the Bank, the Treasury and the OBR – were treated with disdain by Truss and Kwarteng," The Spectator pointed out.
"Liz Truss was not the first choice of her party's MPs, and she made enemies by appointing a cabinet which left out the most able members of her party," noted Mark Garnett, a politics professor at Lancaster University and author of the book "The British Prime Minister in an Age of Upheaval." "She sealed her fate by proposing to reduce taxation for the rich at a time when ordinary people are facing economic hardship."
Therefore, it's hardly surprising that following a string of failures committed by Truss, a considerable number of Conservative MPs made their feelings clear to Graham Brady, the chair of the 1922 Backbench Committee. "I think the extent of it was such as that he basically advised Liz Truss, 'resign now and go with honor and dignity or be removed in a way similar to that of your predecessor, Boris Johnson'," Jones presumed.
Unity Candidate for Tories
The most challenging question now is who will take the reins of the British government since no candidates stand out to replace Truss, according to Jones.
Conservative MPs do not want another long leadership election so they need a "unity candidate," but the problem is that the party is deeply divided, the professor pointed out.
"The Conservative Party is in danger of falling apart because of serious divisions over policies and personalities," echoed Mark Garnett. "Most MPs will be hoping that there can be a smooth transition to a new leader who has widespread support among all elements of the party. Such a person, however, will be difficult to find."
The obvious candidate is Rishi Sunak, who's expected to stand, according to Laura McAllister, professor of public policy at the Wales Governance Centre.
"[Sunak] was the most popular candidate amongst Tory MPs in the election this summer. And that says a lot because clearly this would be an election by MPs," she noted.
At the same time, some see Sunak "as a kind of voice of calm and the stabilizing force that is needed given the unstable markets post mini budget" given his earlier projections with regard to Truss’ economic plan, according to McAllister.
There are "rumours of Boris Johnson standing - never rule anything out obviously," continued the professor of public policy. "But bear in mind that this is a guy who was receiving very low ratings based on his involvement in partygate during COVID. He still has, of course, supporters without a shadow of a doubt (…) although I don't think he will get to the starting line-up."
For his part, Jones cited the fact that BoJo is under investigation by the Privileges Committee: "If found guilty and suspended from Parliament for ten days, [he] could suffer a recall election, and he loses his position as an MP," the academic warned.
There is a certain clash between the conservative camps supporting Johnson and Sunak, so maybe MPs would look for someone less divisive and more appealing to all factions, according to the observers. Still, some of those potential candidates lack necessary experience.
"The other candidates, two women, I would say, Penny Mordaunt, who finished third in the leadership contest and has obviously stood up and faced the music this week in PMQs and so on," suggested McAllister. "I think there's a kind of risk about inexperience there (…) Same would apply for Suella Braverman. Hard, hard right-winger (…) I don't see that she would be a credible candidate because I think the Tories have recognized they need a more mainstream candidate. Same with Kemi, not for the same reasons, but similar to Kemi Badenoch in that she also fought the election very strongly on the right and especially in the culture wars."
Another potential candidate is Secretary of State for Defence Ben Wallace. However, he has already signaled that he does not want this job. Jones explained that Wallace "is happy working for defence" and feels quite comfortable in an environment which he knows and understands and can deliver. Likewise, Jeremy Hunt, the incumbent chancellor, has made it clear that he is not standing for prime minister either.
"If [the Conservative Party] get[s] more than one candidate that will have to go to the party membership unless the rules are going to be changed, whereas the party membership will not be consulted," noted Jones. "Now, if that is to happen, the party membership is going to be furious and they quite likely will potentially remove their electoral support from the party come the next general election in retaliation against the overruling of their mandate."
"So as to what is going to happen in British politics, goodness only knows," he continued. "There is a saying that a week is a long time in politics. For the current Conservative Party in the UK, one hour appears at the moment to be an eternity in politics."