Under the protocol, which is a part of the Brexit deal between the UK and the EU, all goods and animal-based products coming from the rest of the British territories must be checked upon arrival in Northern Ireland to ensure their compatibility with EU sanitary regulations.
In June, the Boris Johnson government introduced a bill unilaterally revising the provisions of the Northern Ireland Protocol, arguing that the deal was not working, as it was causing delays and interruptions to goods movement between the UK and Northern Ireland. The bill stipulates the establishment of a "green channel" for goods transported from the UK to Northern Ireland, as well as the change in tax rules, stripping the European Court of its role as the sole arbiter of disputes.
This move drew the ire of the EU and pushed Brussels to take legal action against London. It was also criticized by the US, with the administration of President Joe Biden making it clear that efforts to override the protocol would undermine any trade talks between Washington and London. The White House has been taking the issue seriously due to concerns that tampering with the trade arrangement may jeopardize the Good Friday Agreement, which put an end to sectarian violence between Catholics and Protestants in Northern Ireland.
Biden and Sunak have already discussed their shared commitment to protecting the gains of the Good Friday deal and to maintain momentum toward a negotiated agreement with the EU on the protocol during a phone call after the latter's victory in the Tory leadership contest.
Protocol of Discord
After taking the reins from predecessor Liz Truss, Sunak made a point that that the previous government, despite acting with good intentions, made some mistakes that now have to be rectified.
Whether these "mistakes" include the protocol is unclear as Sunak is a Brexiteer and has been critical of it before, but he did tell his Irish counterpart, Micheal Martin, that he would like to see a negotiated solution to the issue.
"There are signs that Britain and the EU have been moving towards a compromise on the Northern Ireland protocol. Although Sunak was a strong supporter of Brexit, he is more pragmatic than his predecessors, Boris Johnson and Liz Truss and is aware of the importance of avoiding a further breach in relations with the EU," Mark Garnett, a senior lecturer at the department of politics, philosophy and religion at Lancaster University, said.
Robert Singh, a professor of politics at Birkbeck, University of London, suggests that Sunak would try his best to resolve the issue with Brussels as "Washington is clear on its stance here, and the UK will not want to alienate the US."
"At the same time, although there will be issues with Conservative MPs, most will want him to succeed, if only for damage limitation purposes — it wouldn't make sense to have another crisis over this," Singh continued.
However, some experts have expressed concerns about Sunak's move in the light of his campaign platform of scrapping EU law as well as supporting the override of the protocol.
"He has long maintained a steadfastly pro-ERG (right wing fringe of Tory party) position on a range of Brexit issues. It was thought that Truss would be more conciliatory in her positions on Northern Ireland," Elaine Fahey, the Jean Monnet Chair in Law & Transatlantic Relations at City, University of London, warned.
She drew attention to the "very controversial" appointment of Tory lawmaker Christopher Heaton-Harris as the Northern Ireland secretary "as well as the Government position on the Northern Ireland Troubles amnesty for soldiers as to its relationship to ECHR law."
On Wednesday, the UK Parliament's Joint Committee on Human Rights announced the government-proposed bill that would offer conditional amnesty to people accused of killings and maiming during the Troubles is unlikely to meet the standards of the European Convention on Human Rights.
Friendship and Trade
While Biden reassured Sunak that the UK remains the closest ally of the US, the proverbial "special relationship" would require both leaders to establish a good rapport despite their differences. This, however, is unlikely to pose a significant problem since Sunak is, as Singh described him, "an Atlanticist."
"He is, on balance, less hawkish than Boris or Liz Truss, so there may be less willingness to either fund defence or take military action. But overall, not much will alter," Singh stated.
Garnett, for his part, suggested that "Biden is likely to work more successfully with Sunak than with Johnson or Truss."
At the same time, both experts do not believe there is any possibility for a trade deal between the US and UK, echoing Truss's admittance that it will not happen anytime soon.
"Liz Truss accepted that a trade deal with the US is still a distant prospect, and it seems that the Northern Ireland situation is not the only obstacle. In the two years before the next UK general election, Sunak will probably be satisfied if he can report any progress, however limited, in this matter," Garnett said.
This sentiment was echoed by Singh, who noted that "the politics in DC are totally against" a US-UK agreement but suggested that London could still reach agreements with individual US states.