"It looks that the chances are very good that Netanyahu will form his coalition with two religious and one religious right party," said Avigdor Eskin, Israeli political commentator and publicist. "Even the official polls admitted that he was about to gain 60 or 61 seats out of 120. And these polls always tend to undermine Netanyahu."
General elections for the 25th Knesset kicked off on November 1 at 7 a.m. (GMT+2). At noon, voting percentages in Israel reached 28.4%, the highest since 1999, according to the Central Election Committee. All in all, there are around 6.8 million eligible Israeli voters. The electoral enthusiasm is quite understandable, given that the nation is casting ballots for a fifth time in four years. The latest government coalition, which comprised unusual political bedfellows, collapsed in June.
The latest polls have suggested that Netanyahu's bloc may be running short of just one seat necessary to get the mandate to form the government. In July 2022, a Panels Politics survey projected that Netanyahu's bloc would receive 61 of the Knesset’s 120 seats. Currently, the election outcome appears to be teetering on the edge of yet another political stalemate.
"I’m a little bit worried," Netanyahu told the press on Tuesday. "But with the help of everyone who hears us, I hope the day will end with a smile."
Netanyahu's Right-Wing Coalition
Netanyahu's coalition consists of conservative and religious parties, namely Likud, which is projected to gain 31 seats, Religious Zionism (14), United Torah Judaism (7), and Shas (8). His major rivals are current caretaker Prime Minister Yair Lapid, the head of the centrist Yesh Atid, and Defense Minister Benny Gantz, the leader of another centrist political force, the National Unity party.
Still, unlike Netanyahu, who appears to have managed to build a consolidated right-wing bloc, Lapid’s center-left alliance remains fractured and divided. The Israeli press is also expressing doubts with regard to Gantz's election odds. He is called a potential "compromise option" for prime minister.
Meanwhile, the media singles out Religious Zionism, led by lawyer Bezalel Smotrich, as especially powerful among the nation's Orthodox parties. Moreover, the party is projected to become nothing short of the third-largest force in the Knesset.
Religious Zionism comprises three groups; one of them, Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Strength), led by Itamar Ben-Gvir, already dubbed a nationalist "rock star" by the international press. It seems that Smotrich and Ben-Gvir's support could come in handy for Netanyahu: the former prime minister signaled on October 31 that he would appoint both as ministers if he ends up at the helm of the government.
A day earlier, Ben-Gvir told the press that he is set to get the position of public security minister, responsible for the police, if Netanyahu takes the reins. According to Ben-Gvir, he raised the issue with Netanyahu on October 27 and that the former prime minister gave the nod. "I’m not quoting word-for-word, but there was considerable enthusiasm [for the idea]," said the Otzma Yehudit leader. “He and his people said it would bring in votes from outside the [Netanyahu-led] bloc and bring us the 61st seat.”
Economy and Security
If Netanyahu's coalition manages to win and he is elected as the nation's prime minister, he could make certain changes to Israel's political course. As of now, Likud has sent three major messages to its voters: first, that it remains the only party that can form a stable government; second, that it will focus on a "non-populist emergency plan" to recover the economy; third, that its economic plan envisages curbing the increase in prices and reducing taxes.
"Netanyahu was very good at making Israeli economy prosperous," Eskin emphasized. "This was his accomplishment that our gross domestic product (GDP) got close to half a trillion dollars."
National security matters are expected to be high on the next Israeli prime minister's agenda, as attacks on civilians and clashes between Palestinian militants and the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have ramped up in the Palestinian Authority and West Bank since the beginning of the year.
The former prime minister has never missed an opportunity to chastise the incumbent government for the upsurge in violence. Although he hailed the government's operation in the Gaza Strip against the Palestinian Islamic Jihad terror group as well as military deployments in the West Bank earlier this year, the media admits that the IDF was the main addressee of his praises.
During his prime ministership, Netanyahu also repeatedly came under criticism over his security policies in the troublesome regions. However, Israeli conservatives still consider him "Mr. Security," citing his decades-long experience in dealing with the challenges posed by Hezbollah, Hamas, and other militant groups.
Israel-Lebanon Deal
When it comes to foreign policy, it is expected that Netanyahu will pursue his longtime agenda, which includes stepping up pressure on Tehran, fighting against the Iran nuclear deal, and opposing the "two-state solution" for Israel and the Palestinians.
In addition to this, the former prime minister has announced that he will “neutralize” Israel’s recent accord with Lebanon demarcating natural gas fields in the Mediterranean Sea. Last week, Israel and Lebanon inked the US-brokered deal which covers part of the Karish and Qana gas fields.
The deal would allow both Israel and Lebanon to tap potentially lucrative offshore gas deposits. However, Netanyahu accused Prime Minister Lapid and Defense Minister Gantz, of "not want[ing] to extract the gas in the first place" and seeking "to surrender it to Hezbollah." Hezbollah, a powerful Lebanese Shia political party and militant group, is designated as a terrorist organization by Israel.
July 11, 2018. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, left, during their meeting
© Sputnik / Sergey Guneev
/ Russo-Israeli Relations
Meanwhile, the Western mainstream press has raised concerns about Israel's relations with Russia in the event Netanyahu wins the elections. The crux of the matter is that during his 12 years as prime minister, Netanyahu maintained good working relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Furthermore, the former Israeli prime minister described Putin as "smart, sophisticated and focused on one goal – returning Russia to its historical greatness," in his recently published book.
Earlier, in July 2022, Netanyahu openly criticized the Israeli government for mismanaging the nation's relationship with Russia amid Moscow's special operation to demilitarize and de-Nazify Ukraine. He said that they had created a dangerous crisis after he had developed a "measured, balanced and responsible relationship with the Kremlin."
In his recent interviews, he praised the Russo-Israeli ability to cooperate, emphasizing at the same time that Israel has sympathy for Ukraine. The former prime minister hinted that he could consider brokering peace between Moscow and Kiev if he wins the elections. Earlier, former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett tried to mediate between Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, but his efforts bore no fruit.
When asked by a US broadcaster on October 21 whether he could provide weapons to Ukraine – something that the present Israeli leadership has refused to do – Netanyahu answered ambiguously: "I was asked about that recently, and I said I’ll look into it when I get into office." Two days earlier, the former prime minister was more straightforward, explaining to the US media outlet that "time and again…weapons that [Israel] supplied in one battlefield end up in Iranian hands used against us."
"We saw that even under Prime Ministers Bennet and Lapid Israel remained dedicated to the special relations with President Putin," argued Eskin. "Although nobody among the leading Israeli politicians supports the Russian military action as such, Israel does not participate in any sanctions and refuses to supply Ukraine with any military items. In other words, Israel is continually more leal towards Russia, than India, China, Turkey, Hungary and Serbia. No sanctions and no military help. When Netanyahu comes we expect that there will be no negative rhetoric as well and possible diplomatic efforts to freeze the military conflict."
Bibi and Biden Administration
At the same time, Netanyahu is expected to maintain close ties with the US, which the Israeli political heavyweight calls an "indispensable ally." He received unprecedented support from then-US President Donald Trump and openly allied himself with Trump Republicans. Having assumed office in January 2021, Joe Biden reversed many of his predecessor's policies concerning Israel. For instance, the Biden administration immediately restored aid to the Palestinian Authority, which Trump had previously cut off, and signaled support for a "two-state solution" in the region. However, differences between Biden and Netanyahu's approach to regional politics won't become an obstacle for US-Israeli relations if Bibi wins, according to Eskin.
"The relations with Washington – this is Netanyahu’s expertise. He will keep them strong, despite all the difficulties with the Biden administration," the Israeli publicist said.
Middle East & Abraham Accords
One might also expect that the Netanyahu-led Abraham Accords, joint normalization agreements struck between Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and some other Arab states starting from September 15, 2020 could gain their second wind, according to the Israeli commentator. He does not rule out Saudi Arabia inking "normalization" accords with Israel if Donald Trump retakes the Oval Office in 2024.
"Israel is becoming stronger and more influential as a result of demographic and economic growth, spiritual uplifting, scientific development and military strength, supplied with good intelligence," said Eskin. "We are not in the midst of a crisis but on the contrary. We are expecting more Arab countries to sign peace treaties with Israel. The Saudis will do it after Trump wins the elections in the US."