"UK-China relations have been deteriorating for several years, for many reasons but especially because of Hong Kong," Jonathan Sullivan, professor of political science and director of China programs at the University of Nottingham's Asia Research Institute in the UK, told Sputnik.
"But Sunak is taking a much less anti-China position than [his predecessor Liz] Truss. If Truss had remained in power for more than seven weeks, relations with China would have got much worse very quickly. But with Sunak – who is a businessman at heart – there is an opportunity to take a less hard-edged approach to China."
According to Sullivan, the British premier's key phrase was "robust pragmatism", which signals a less hawkish stance on the People's Republic of China (PRC). The professor suggested that the prospect of moving back to "pragmatism" – i.e. an interest-based approach – represents an "optimistic development."
"So the language around 'robust pragmatism' was seemingly very critical and hard on China – but the Chinese will understand what he is trying to signal here," the academic continued. "The UK is not in a strong position to cut itself off from the second biggest economy, given the many economic crises that the UK is facing."
Nonetheless, Sunak immediately came under criticism from Tory MPs who accused him of "appeasing" Beijing and showing "weakness." Ex-Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith argued that Sunak should straightforwardly classify China as a "threat" in the updated Integrated Review instead of calling it a "systemic challenge." The UK’s Integrated Review – the country's comprehensive defense and security strategy for the next decade – is due to be updated in 2023, according to the British prime minister.
Roots of UK's China Strategy
The British conservatives have long called for a tougher stance on China. In 2020, the UK's influential center-right think tank Policy Exchange presented a doctrine aimed at shattering the China-centered order in the Asia-Pacific. The report titled "A Very British Tilt" envisaged teaming up with the US and regional allies and beefing up their joint military presence in the region to contain China's rise.
US observers told Sputnik at the time that Britain's explicit strategic pivot to the Asia-Pacific "marks the continuation of a trend for the mobilization of an anti-Chinese alliance in the region."
Apparently, the UK's China strategy should be seen in the context of Washington's decade-long "Pivot to Asia" grand design which was kicked off by US President Barack Obama and then implemented by his successors, Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Thus, under Trump, the US started a trade war with China; called upon its Five Eyes allies to ban China-made 5G telecom equipment under the security threat pretext; stepped up Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) in the South China Sea; and propped up the informal strategic forum Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QSD) together with Japan, Australia, and India.
Canada went even further and arrested Huawei's Chief Financial Officer Meng Wanzhou over the alleged violations of anti-Iranian sanctions in Vancouver on December 1, 2018, at the request of US law enforcement officials. Even though Meng was eventually released and left Canada for China on September 24, 2021, Ottawa continued to harden its stance against China, following in Washington's footsteps.
29 November 2022, 09:27 GMT
Canada's New 'Indo-Pacific Strategy'
On November 27, Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly released the nation's new Indo-Pacific Strategy envisaging nearly US $1.7 billion (C$2.3 billion) in military spending. The doctrine includes ramping up navy patrols in the Asia Pacific region, improving intelligence and cyber-security measures, and bolstering cooperation with regional partners in the East and South China Seas. Furthermore, Foreign Minister Joly publicly called China an "increasingly disruptive global power" earlier this month, while Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland called for breaking with "autocracies".
"Canada's 'Indo-Pacific strategy' just released with great fanfare by four cabinet ministers is not so much aggressive as foolish and shortsighted," said Joseph Camilleri, emeritus professor at La Trobe University in Melbourne and one of Australia's leading international relations scholars. "It is a case of the Canadian security establishment demonstrating to its 'great and powerful' ally that it is prepared to play the role assigned to it by Washington."
According to Camilleri, the US' junior allies – the UK, Canada and Australia – "are aligning themselves so closely with the US policy of containment the end result of which is likely to be at best failure and at worst a devastating war."
"Canada is in the core Five Eyes alliance of the US with North American joint headquarters, without independent security and strategy from the US," echoed Professor Wang Yiwei, director of the institute of international affairs at Renmin University of China. "Such aggressive policy will turn the relations with China to the lowest point."
China used to be Canada's main trading partner before 2018 when Canada arrested Meng and Beijing's subsequent arrest of two Canadians on spying charges. Tensions recently resurged following the arrest of Yuesheng Wang, a public utility worker at Hydro-Quebec, who was charged with espionage by the Canadian government. "What we are seeing with both the United States and its allies in the Anglosphere is an attempt to securitize all aspects of policy," noted Camilleri, commenting on the issue.
In addition, "the Trudeau administration has not been achieving the stellar political support it once had, and has accused Beijing of interfering in Canadian politics (rightly or wrongly), Trudeau is certainly trying to flog the 'China threat' for political gains," remarked Dr. Victor Teo, a political scientist specializing in international politics of Indo-Pacific who is based in Singapore.
US National Security Strategy
Canada's recent strategy appears to mirror Joe Biden's National Security Strategy (NSS) which was released last month. The Biden administration's strategy called the PRC "America's most consequential geopolitical challenge." It underscored that the US views China as "the only competitor with both the intent to reshape the international order and, increasingly, the economic, diplomatic, military, and technological power to advance that objective."
Washington started to walk the talk even before the publication of the doctrine, which was released with some delays. The US strengthened its alliance with the UK and Australia in the Asia Pacific by inking AUKUS, a trilateral security pact between the Anglophone countries which was announced on 15 September 2021. In fact, Joe Biden started to ramp up tensions with Beijing over a host of issues including trade, human rights, the South China Sea and the status of Taiwan from the early months of his presidency.
During the June 2022 Madrid Summit, the US-led NATO alliance put forward a new blueprint for the future, singling out the PRC as a longstanding "systemic challenge" for the Euro-Atlantic security through purported "malicious hybrid and cyber operations," and "[attempts] to control key technological and industrial sectors, critical infrastructure, and strategic materials and supply chains." In a separate move, the US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) announced the expansion of Coastguard operations in the Asia Pacific in October 2022.
Likewise, the Biden administration tightened screws on China's hi-tech industry: last month the US Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) imposed sweeping limits on the export of advanced semiconductors, chip-making equipment, and supercomputer components to the PRC.
How Anglo-Saxon Strategy May Pan Out for Asia Pacific
It is no coincidence that the Anglophone club of nations chose the Asia-Pacific as a battlefield in their great power competition vis-a-vis China, according to Dr. Sriparna Pathak, associate professor and director of the Centre for Northeast Asian Studies at the School of International Affairs at O.P. Jindal Global University, Haryana.
"The Indo-Pacific is an extremely important arena of international politics given the volume of trade that passes through the region, the existence of important sea lanes of communication and the natural resources present," Pathak said.
The region may undergo certain changes as it is likely to be put under increasing pressure to align with Western countries, warned Radhika Desai, Professor at the Department of Political Studies, and Director of the Geopolitical Economy Research Group at the University of Manitoba. It could negatively affect the region's stability, according to her.
At the same time, Desai highlighted that the economies of the US, UK, Canada and Australia remained intertwined with that of China. Furthermore, she has drawn attention to the fact that the doctrines, released by the US and its Anglo-Saxon allies still admit the necessity to cooperate with Beijing on pressing global issues, such as climate change or counter-terror activities.
"I think that with both these documents, we will see a continuation of what I see to be a slightly schizophrenic and two-pronged strategy that both the Biden administration and the Trudeau government seem to be intent on following," she noted, particularly referring to Washington and Ottawa's strategies.
Nonetheless, the emerging anti-China trend, pursued by the US and its allies is likely to continue gaining momentum, according to Sullivan.
"In the coming decade we may see behaviors that are more similar to containment than engagement," Sullivan underscored. "It will lead to a rolling back of globalization, decoupling of economies, and overlapping interests that will create friction and tensions. How these developments are managed will be extremely consequential, since there are many flashpoints and grievances that could spark conflict."