How Many Nuclear Submarines Does China Have and How Big a Threat Do They Pose to the US?

The US military expressed concerns last month over China’s deployment of a new kind of ICBM – the JL-3, a solid-fueled missile fitted aboard its Type 094 submarines (NATO reporting name Jin-class). JL-3s have an estimated range of between 10,000 and 12,000 km, meaning that even if the strategic weapons were launched directly off China’s shores, they could hit any major US city along the West Coast. If stationed closer to Hawaii, the ICBMs would blanket the entire continental United States.

In a report put out last week on “Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2022,” the DoD upped the hype, suggesting China could nearly triple the size of its nuclear arsenal in less than a decade, from 350 warheads today to more than 1,000 by 2030.

China has six Type 094 ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) in its arsenal, and is building at least two more. The 11,000-ton subs are 135 meters long, have a 12.5 meter beam, and an unlimited range, thanks to their onboard nuclear reactors. They can carry up to 12 ballistic missiles.

Along with the new JL-3s, which have five to seven multiple independent reentry vehicles (MIRVs), Type 094 subs carry JL-2s, which have a 7,200 range, and either a single one-megaton warhead or up to three less powerful MIRVs. The kilotonnage of the JL-3 is unknown.

The PLA has not disclosed the area of operations of its sea-based nuclear deterrent. However, according to the DoD, Type 094 missiles fitted with JL-2s would need to approach to areas north or east of Hawaii to target cities on the US East Coast. JL-3s, on the other hand, provide Beijing with the capability of operating much closer to China’s home shores, with the Pentagon assuming the South China Sea and the Bohai Gulf to be the PLAN’s “preferred options” for deployment “to enhance the survivability of its sea-based deterrent.”

Along with nuclear missile-launching subs, China also has six Type 093 (NATO reporting name Shang-class) nuclear-powered attack subs, armed with Yu-3, Yu-4 and Yu-6 torpedoes and subsonic YJ-82 anti-ship cruise missiles. A modernized Type 093B land-attack missile cruise missile-firing variant of the Shang is reportedly in the works, and is expected to be fielded in 2025; it remains unknown whether the latter could be armed with nuclear-tipped cruise missiles.

China is working on the Type 096, a successor to the Type 094 boomer sub, with the US military expecting the boats to start construction sometime this decade, and possibly carry a new type of sea-launched long-range missile in addition to the JL-3. The Pentagon expects China’s total SSBN capability to hit eight boats by the year 2030.

The PRC is one of a handful of countries possessing a nuclear triad (i.e. the means to deliver nuclear weapons using ground-launched missiles, submarines, and aircraft). Despite the country’s economic power (China is the number one economy in the world), growing technological prowess, and rising global stature, the size of its nuclear weapons stockpile lags significantly behind the US (which, with its 5,550 nuclear warheads, has an arsenal nearly 16 times as large).

China is also one of just two nuclear powers with a no-first use policy – meaning a promise not to resort to the use of nuclear weapons unless attacked using such weapons first. (The other such country is India.) In that sense, China’s approach to nuclear weapons is as a deterrent in the truest sense of the word, basically amounting to "don’t nuke us and we won’t be forced to retaliate in kind."

Compared to China, America’s SSBN fleet is enormous, with the US Navy’s 14 Ohio-class nuclear missile subs alone comprising more than half of the US strategic deterrent. Four Ohio-class subs are cruise missile-firing boats. Ohio-class SSBNs carry up to 24 Trident II missiles (each of those fitted with up to 14 MIRVs, or a single five to seven kiloton warhead). The cruise missile variants of the Ohio-class can carry up to 154 Tomahawk nuclear-capable missiles. These stats mean that a couple of Ohio-class subs have the nuclear firepower equivalent to China’s entire strategic arsenal.

The Ohio-class’s successor, the Columbia-class, began construction in 2020, with the Navy planning to build 12 of those, each of them carrying 16 Trident IIs. The first of the fleet is expected to be fielded in 2031.

Along with boomers, the US also has more than 50 nuclear-powered fast attack subs of the Los Angeles, Seawolf, and Virginia class. Each of them can carry nuclear-capable cruise missiles.

Chinese officials remain ever-cognizant of the massive overkill in the size of the US nuclear arsenal in comparison with their own, and have subsequently expressed reticence in Washington’s efforts to pull them into strategic arms talks.