A new study from the World Health Organization published in the peer-reviewed journal Nature reveals that COVID-19 caused 15 mln additional deaths in 2020 and 2021. What is even more surprising, the excess deaths were higher in 2021 despite the emergence of highly effective vaccines.
Researchers point out that from the very beginning of the pandemic, scientists had suspected that some COVID-connected deaths go underreported. At first, there were no reliable testing systems, making it difficult to officially attribute fatalities to COVID-19. Even when wealthy countries got reliable test systems, poor countries continued to struggle. Also some governments probably chose to underreport the real numbers, experts indicate.
The research team lead by statistician William Msemburi chose another method to measure real COVID-19 mortality all around the globe – to estimate country`s excess deaths, e.g. the deaths above the expected baseline of mortality. The expected baseline of mortality is measured by looking at average deaths over the past several years.
What is more interesting, in 2020 there were 4.47 mln excess deaths, whereas in 2021 there were 10.36 mln excess deaths despite the emergence of highly-effective vaccines. The researchers explained this puzzle, claiming that poor countries did not have immediate access to vaccination and at the same time new strains of COVID-19 emerged that were either more fatal (Delta) or more virulent (Omicron).
“Both the reported COVID-19 mortality and estimated excess have been higher in 2021 than in 2020. In 2021 this is not only due to the more infectious variants but potentially also due to unequal access to vaccines,” Msemburi claims.
Scientists point out that vaccination saved many lives – in the US alone, it is estimated to have prevented 3 mln deaths. However, scientists think that proper vaccination is only part of the story.
“It is crucial that we highlight these data gaps and call for greater investment in civil registration and vital statistics systems. Gaps in information lead to gaps in response, perpetuating unequal access to interventions that could improve the lives of all populations,” Msemburi stated.
Year 2022 has seen a serious decrease in COVID-related deaths – around 1 mln, but researchers are still working on the figures and want to avoid speculation.