"This trip will be very reminiscent of Biden's previous trip to Warsaw last year, that he will naturally promise to strengthen the eastern flank of NATO, possibly placing new US military bases in Poland," said Mateusz Piskorski, political observer and columnist for the Myśl Polska (Polish Thought) newspaper.
"Loud statements about support for Ukraine and support for Kiev will also be heard," he told Sputnik.
"He will probably talk about the results of today's visit to Kiev and the meeting in Minsk, and will also try to get support from the countries of Central and Eastern Europe. And this concerns not only Poland, but many other countries, leaders of other countries that will participate in the Central European summit. Because, let me remind you that the American leader is planning to meet with the leaders of the so-called [Bucharest Nine] member countries of NATO and Central Europe. Most likely, pressure will be put on other countries, for example, Hungary and Romania, which are more reserved about the idea of unconditional support for Ukraine and Kiev," Piskorski continued.
Joe Biden is due to visit the same place in Poland where he delivered his off-the-script remarks that Russia's President Vladimir Putin "cannot remain in power," much to the glee of the Polish leadership.
The apparent gaffe was followed by White House assurances that the US president was not calling for a regime change in Russia. However, in April 2022, US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin openly stated that he wanted "to see Russia weakened" so that it would no longer have the power to conduct active military actions, leaving little if any doubts about Washington's intentions.
It is expected that the US president will meet Polish President Andrzej Duda before delivering a speech on February 21. Biden is going to send the message that the US will stand with Ukraine for “as long as it takes,” according to White House national security spokesperson John Kirby.
On February 22, the US president is due to meet the Bucharest Nine, which consists of ex-Soviet Republics and Warsaw Pact states-turned NATO members: Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Slovakia.
Warsaw's Saber-Rattling: US-British Tool
"[Poland] is now the main military support ground for Ukraine," Piskorski said. "And in fact, indeed, we can say that the US and the Anglo-Saxons are implementing their geopolitical project called Ukraine with the help of Poland. Poland is not an independent player here, but rather a pawn in the US' big geopolitical game."
"Another proof of this will be Biden's visit, which, by the way, causes quite a lot of indignation among ordinary Polish citizens, because in fact they are trying to turn this visit into such a grandiose event in the Polish media that I think that many Poles are already tired of such an attitude to the US," he continued.
Since the beginning of the Russian special military operation to demilitarize and de-Nazify Ukraine, Poland has played an active role in both providing military assistance to Kiev and admonishing Germany, Austria and Hungary for not being tough enough against Russia.
Warsaw provided more military assistance to the Ukrainian Army in per capita terms than any other European state other than the Baltic countries. This included hundreds of tanks and other heavy weaponry. In January 2023, Poland pledged to send 60 more tanks to Ukraine in addition to the 14 German-made Leopard 2 tanks from its stockpiles. Poland has also taken more Ukrainian refugees than any other EU state. The country is also an important logistical hub for delivering international weapons to the Kiev regime.
In addition, Poland was one of the most vocal antagonists of Russia's Nord Stream pipelines, designed to deliver up to 110 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas from Russia to the European Union. Remarkably, the Polish-Norwegian gas pipeline was triumphantly commissioned on September 27, 2022, a day after the Nord Stream infrastructure was destroyed by unknown perpetrators. The Baltic Pipe transports the fuel from the North Sea to Poland via Denmark at up to 10 billion cubic metres (bcm) per year. According to Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist Seymour Hersh, the US and Norway were directly involved in the destruction of the Russian pipe with Denmark being possibly aware of the covert operation.
11 February 2023, 15:39 GMT
Furthermore, in October 2022, Warsaw announced that it asked Washington to deploy US nuclear weapons in Poland in a bid to deter Russia. "We have spoken with American leaders about whether the United States is considering such a possibility. The issue is open," Polish President Duda told the local media. However, the White House said at the time that it had not received such a request. Moving US nuclear arms into Poland would come in violation of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and the NATO-Russia Founding Act in 1997.
Meanwhile, US military observers have claimed that Poland's long-delayed Aegis Ashore system may become operational in 2023. The Aegis Ashore is a land-based component of the Sea-Based Weapon Systems element within the US Missile Defense Agency's European air shield. One of the two systems has already been deployed in Deveselu, Romania. A similar site was also planned for Redzikowo, Poland, near the Baltic Sea. The complex, located on Russia's doorstep, has long been seen by Moscow as a direct threat due to the Aegis launching capabilities. Washington earlier claimed that the system's ballistic missile interceptors are aimed solely against Iran.
Soviet and Polish soldiers during the liberation of western Belorussia. 1944.
© Sputnik / F. Levshin
/ What's Behind Poland's Anti-Russia Sentiment
However, Poland's muscle-flexing and saber-rattling started long before the Russian Ukraine operation. In 1999, a former vital member of the Warsaw Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance, Poland joined NATO, soon emerging as the world’s twentieth most powerful military.
Prior to that, pro-Western Polish President Lech Walesa hailed the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Since, anti-Russia sentiment in Poland has been gaining momentum over the years.
According to Piskorski, the Polish elite's anti-Russia sentiment was largely inspired by its patrons from the US and Great Britain.
"I think that Warsaw is just a tool for Washington and London to carry out certain plans," the Polish publicist said. "So I would not say that Poland is independently pursuing this tough, anti-Russian, confrontational policy. Most likely, Poland is following certain instructions from the US and the UK and from other external centers of power (…) I don't think we have hostile relations between our peoples. Rather, I think it is a matter exclusively of this political level."
Polish Army soldiers stand to attention during a wreath laying ceremony marking the 62nd anniversary of the end of WWII in Europe, at the Soviet Army cemetery in Warsaw, Poland, Wednesday, May 9, 2007
© AP Photo / Alik Keplicz
For instance, the leader of the Polish ruling party, Law and Justice (PiS), Jaroslaw Kaczynski, went so far as to claim that Russia was obliged to pay compensation to Poland for the Second World War damage. The USSR's liberation of Poland during the Second World War as well as Moscow's successful effort to revive and rebuild the Polish economy in the post-war period have seemingly been forgotten.
The PiS party came to power first in 2005 and later in 2015, marking an upsurge in anti-Russian sentiment within the Polish leadership. In 2017, Warsaw prohibited Russia from working on renovations of the museum at the site of the Sobibor concentration camp, a notorious WWII Nazi site. Moreover, Red Army monuments and burial sites of Soviet soldiers have been repeatedly subjected to desecration and vandalism over the past years.
At the same time, Polish authorities under the ruling PiS have been promoting an expansionist agenda, including the revival of the old Commonwealth of Lithuania, Poland, and Ukraine for the purposes of strengthening mutual military, cultural, economic and political cooperation. The so-called Lublin Triangle advocates granting Ukraine the status of NATO-enhanced partner and promoting a NATO Membership Action Plan for the Eastern European state. The PiS party is also peddling the idea of Intermarium, a multinational polity lying between the Baltic, Black and Adriatic Seas.
French President Emmanuel Macron (L), Poland's President Andrzej Duda (C) and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (R) make a statement after their meeting during the Munich Security Conference (MSC) in Munich, southern Germany, on February 17, 2023. (Photo by Odd ANDERSEN / AFP)
© AFP 2023 / ODD ANDERSEN
Polish conservative politicians appear to have tried to involve Belarus in its fold, too. According to some experts, over the past 30 years, Warsaw has built an infrastructure to influence public opinion in Belarus. During the 2020 public unrest in Belarus, Belorussian President Alexander Lukashenko pointed the finger at policy-makers of Poland, Lithuania, Ukraine and the Czech Republic, accusing them of trying and failing to foment a coup d'etat in the country, akin to the 2014 military regime change in Ukraine.
"We recently conducted opinion polls, and, according to the results of these polls, we understand that the majority of the Polish population still believes that Russia is not a threat in terms of values and that it is worth building relations with the Russian Federation," said Piskorski. "So, despite all this propaganda pressure from the leading media and politicians, I still don’t think that ordinary citizens of Poland have anti-Russian sentiments."
Piskorski underscored that he had never felt any hostile attitude towards Poles in Russian society.
"Therefore, I would respond to the question of politics and the question of when we will improve relations between our countries at the official formal level: it will happen when the United States stops playing its geopolitical games in Europe on the European continent," the Polish publicist concluded.