"The short answer is that there is very little about this deal that could not have been decided upon earlier," Dr. Roslyn Fuller, director of the non-profit think tank Solonian Democracy Institute, told Sputnik.
"In particular, the separation of goods into those destined for Northern Ireland and those destined for the Republic would have been easy to achieve. Goods shipments are tracked quite closely these days and a great deal of this work is automated."
"The only real innovation seems to be the Stormont Brake which gives political parties in Northern Ireland an avenue to involve themselves in the regulatory process going forward and thus rather cleverly shifts the onus for doing so onto them," Fuller, who is also the author of the book Beasts and Gods: How Democracy Changed Its Meaning and Lost Its Purpose, continued.
Row Between BoJo and EU
The European bloc and the government of then-Prime Minister Boris Johnson crossed swords over the Northern Ireland Protocol on many occasions, with No. 10 arguing that the agreement undermined the UK's sovereignty. BoJo sought a fundamental renegotiation of the deal while the European Commission insisted that the protocol is an integral part of the Withdrawal Agreement and cannot be reconsidered.
The protocol in question aimed to avoid the reconstruction of a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, which had been removed by the Good Friday Agreement. Therefore, it was agreed that Northern Ireland would continue to follow EU rules on product standards to prevent checks along the border. Instead, checks were forced on products coming to Northern Ireland from England, Scotland or Wales to adhere to the European bloc's rulebook. This has prompted concerns that a new border had in effect been created in the Irish Sea, separating one part of the UK from the other.
Food shortages and red tape caused by a combination of factors including post-Brexit rules and COVID measures prompted riots and disorder in Northern Ireland in early 2021. Irish unionists argued that the protocol was weakening the UK's integrity and pushing Belfast into the arms of the Republic of Ireland. For their part, Irish nationalists insisted that it was Brexit and not the protocol which should be blamed.
The Windsor Framework
It appears that the so-called Windsor Framework agreed by Prime Minister Sunak and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen replaced the old Northern Ireland Protocol and, seemingly, untied the Gordian knot that the BoJo cabinet attempted to cut altogether.
"EU leaders have sensed that Sunak is much more pragmatic than his predecessors," alleged Mark Garnett, a politics professor at Lancaster University. "They would always have reached a compromise like this if the British side had not been the prisoner of Brexit extremists. It is therefore a 'triumph' for common sense rather than for Sunak personally."
In accordance with the newly-reached deal, a reported "green lane" removes any sense of a border in the Irish Sea for goods staying within the UK; goods will travel as normal without red tape or unnecessary checks. Northern Ireland will now benefit from the same VAT, food and drink and medicines as the rest of the UK. And, most importantly, the new "Stormont Brake" means the UK can veto new EU goods laws if they are not supported by both communities in Northern Ireland.
DUP and Brexiters Don't Seem to be Happy
Even though the deal appears to be a win-win, there are issues that could prompt opposition in Northern Ireland's political circles, as well as among tough Brexiteers, according to Garnett.
"Although the EU has moved considerably, Sunak has accepted the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice (ECJ) in certain matters relating to the single market," he said. "That's a concession which many on his own side (and in the Democratic Unionist Party) will find difficult to swallow."
On February 27, the US conservative press quoted Jim Allister, leader of the Traditional Unionist Voice, who claimed that he would expect the DUP to reject the deal secured by Sunak and von der Leyen. At the same time, the DUP may face difficulties while selling the deal to their wary electorate, according to the media.
Meanwhile, the UK Conservatives remain divided, with voters wondering as to why it took so long to sort the mess out, the professor pointed out. "Some key figures have accepted that a compromise was the only way out. Others treat Brexit as a kind of religion, and will continue to cause Sunak difficulties," Garnett, who is the author of The British Prime Minister in an Age of Upheaval, noted.
"Very few politicians and political parties are anti-free trade in this day and age, so it was always a storm in a teacup," suggested Dr. Fuller. "The entire international apparatus has focused on removing barriers to free trade for decades. It's not really a compromise if everyone wants what is ultimately the same thing - for trade to flow everywhere with as few obstacles and regulations as possible."
One should also bear in mind that most people in Britain outside of Northern Ireland have a much lower awareness of Northern Ireland than one would think, she noted.
When it comes to Northern Ireland and the issue of its unity with Britain, "the deal may slightly defuse the possibility of a referendum on Irish reunification for the immediate future," she continued.
Fuller added, however, that "that depends a lot more on the outcome of the next election in the Republic of Ireland." She highlighted that Sinn Fein – an Irish political party active throughout both the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland – "remains in a very strong position here and it is hard to imagine them coming to power and not strongly pursuing reunification."
"Although they have diversified their political platform, to fail to prominently pursue reunification would still be very counter to expectations should they attain power," Fuller concluded.