After Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Russia to meet with President Vladimir Putin in mid-March, there has been a flurry of diplomatic activity around Beijing. As Washington eyes the increasingly assertive Asian powerhouse through the prism of antagonism, designating it as its leading global competitor and a security threat, European leaders have made a beeline for Beijing.
Just recently, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez made a foray into China. EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrel is also set to pay a visit to Beijing next week.
"Today [European Commission] President [Ursula] von der Leyen will be in Beijing with French President [Emmanuel Macron], Spanish Prime Minister [Pedro] Sanchez was there last week, and I will travel next week too. So as you see a lot of Europeans are going to China," Borrell told reporters.
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock may follow suit sometime in mid-April.
From April 5-7, at the invitation of his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, French President Emmanuel Macron is to arrive in Beijing, accompanied by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, whom he invited to join him. What is the purpose of this visit, and why did the French leader need the President of the European Commission to tag along?
On April 3, China’s Foreign Ministry confirmed the itinerary for Emmanuel Macron’s three-day state visit to the country, underscoring that the French leader would be meeting with President Xi Jinping.
“President Xi Jinping will hold talks with him to jointly plan and lead the future development of Sino-French relations, and deepen cooperation between China, France and Europe in various fields. They will exchange in-depth views on major international and regional issues,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning told the press.
Also on the agenda are Macron’s talks with Li Qiang, premier of the Chinese State Council, and Zhao Leji, chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, which is China’s top legislature. As part of his tour, Macron will also visit the city of Guangzhou in China's southern province of Guangdong.
Charm Offensive or Pressure Campaign?
Macron's trip to China is expected to be somewhat of a balancing act, according to analysts on both sides, as the French leader is on a mission to try and dissuade Beijing from supporting Russia, but without alienating a key trade partner and increasingly assertive global player. Furthermore, the visit comes against the backdrop of crucial geopolitical changes, when the US has upped its rivalry with China to new heights, while holding Europe, reeling from the energy crisis and backfiring Russia sanctions, firmly in its grasp.
The conflagration in Ukraine is expected to be high on the agenda for the meetings in Beijing this week, as both Macron and von der Leyen appear set on reiterating the European Union's commitment to readily toe the Washington-driven line regarding propping up the Kiev regime.
Ahead of the China visit, back in March, Macron had revealed that he had discussed the upcoming trip with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, saying they shared “a common vision” to “engage with China in order to put pressure on Russia.” Accordingly, one may expect that approach to be utilized during the three-day state visit.
“The presidents of France and China will hold extensive discussions on the war in Ukraine to work towards restoring peace and compliance with international law, particularly the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine,” the French president’s office said in a statement ahead of the visit.
Embattled Macron, at pains to contain the raging pension protests at home, appears to be hankering for the role of a regional player with clout in the Asia-Pacific, given the country's overseas territories boasting some 1.6 million citizens. The region is a hotbed of geopolitical rivalry, with Washington eagerly muscle-flexing and fanning the flames of tension between mainland China and Taiwan.
Meanwhile, China’s success in mediating is obviously an eyesore for Emmanuel Macron, who at one point boasted hours of phone calls with Vladimir Putin in 2022 in a show of mediatory efforts. Meanwhile, Beijing has released a 12-point proposal for resolving the Ukraine crisis. As could be expected, the Biden administration, which has persisted in stoking the flames of the Ukraine conflict to carry on with its proxy war against Russia, dismissed the plan as nothing short of a distraction from the alleged "imminent threat" of China supplying lethal weapons to Russia. This latter assumption has been denied by both Moscow and Beijing.
Furthermore, in March, the People's Republic of China brokered a historic reconciliation deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The two rivals signed an agreement to restore full diplomatic relations, elevating China's status as an influential mediator. EU officials have no choice but recognize China’s success in mediating and diving into the role of greater geopolitical significance.
'Unified Voice'
When Emmanuel Macron announced in March that Ursula von der Leyen would accompany him on the state visit to China, he said that they could speak “with a unified voice," adding:
“I don’t have a European mandate, as France has its independent diplomacy — but I’m attached to European coordination.”
Macron also drew parallels with how then-Commission chief Jean-Claude Juncker had been present when the French president and former German Chancellor Angela Merkel hosted Chinese President Xi Jinping in Paris in 2019.
Regarding wooing Beijing away from Moscow, European Commission President von der Leyen did not mince words, stating ahead of the visit that, "How China continues to interact with Putin's war will be a determining factor for EU-China relations going forward." She also acknowledged that ties have become "more distant and more difficult" in recent years. At the same time, von der Leyen ruled out the 27-member European Union's "decoupling" from China, but urged the bloc to “de-risk” from overdependency on the Asia powerhouse.
In response to the remarks, China's ambassador to the European Union, said Friday he was "disappointed," adding that "the speech contained a lot of misrepresentation of Chinese policies and the Chinese positions."
'Rebalance Trade'
Trade is a looming issue up for discussion between France, and the EU, on the one hand, and China. Macron is bringing with him a delegation numbering around 60 business leaders, including Airbus and Électricité de France (EDF) bosses, obviously eyeing potential lucrative new contracts.
Last year, China remained the third-largest partner for European Union exports and the largest partner for EU imports. China was France’s seventh-biggest trading partner in 2021.
"We need this relationship," von der Leyen admitted on Thursday. Echoing these sentiments, Joerg Wuttke, president of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China, was cited by media reports as saying:
"Our sales are miserable. Last year, we only shipped 1.6 million containers to China, exports went down dramatically -- and China has been incredibly successful, shipping 6.4 million containers into Europe."
According to Wuttke, European investments in China have plummeted by as much as 50%. Furthermore, the EU's Comprehensive Agreement on Investment with Beijing has stalled, riddled in rows over alleged human rights issues. However, von der Leyen said last week that the bloc would consider restricting European companies’ investment in China in sensitive sectors such as robotics, quantum computing, and artificial intelligence.
'Eying a Thriving Market'
Visits like the one of Macron to Beijing, "demonstrate the great importance the European countries and EU institutions attach to their relations with China, as they see China as an important player on global issues," Fu Cong, head of the Chinese mission to the EU, told Chinese media on April 3. He added that Europe wants to "explore business opportunities in such a huge and thriving market."
Furthermore, Europe is pragmatically realizing how resilient China is to US sanctions and otherwise pressure, Zhao Junjie, a research fellow at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences' Institute of European Studies, was cited as saying.
'Promoting US Propaganda'
Weighing in on the upcoming visit and its outcome, Former French MEP Florian Philippot was skeptical. First of all, he found it striking that Emmanuel Macron is going to China with Ursula von der Leyen.
"France puts itself under the supervision of the European Union, including during official visits to other countries. This is symbolic. If Emmanuel Macron takes Ursula von der Leyen with him, this means that in China he will make the same statements as she will... These will be statements in the interests of Washington and NATO,” Philippot, who is also leader of France's Eurosceptic party The Patriots, underscored to the media.
"I do not expect anything special from this visit of Emmanuel Macron... I think he will promote American propaganda that is very aggressive towards Russia. It is also becoming more and more aggressive towards China... and in opposition to the emerging Russian-Chinese axis, which is becoming clearer and clearer. Today, France is in the hands of the European Union and NATO, that is, in the hands of the United States,” Florian Philippot concluded.