Senior Western leaders and policymakers are reportedly concerned that Russia and China could join forces to create a new Arctic bloc amid the West’s efforts to freeze Moscow out of the Arctic Council.
“The worry is if Russia and China make their own kind of Arctic Council,” a senior Arctic country policymaker has told British business media, referencing concerns that the eight-member intergovernmental forum could disintegrate following the suspension of cooperation by its Western members with Russia last year, and the formal end of its Russia’s rotating presidency in the body in May, when it was handed over to Norway.
“On the one hand, the agenda we want to promote in the Arctic doesn’t make much sense without Russia. It makes up 40 percent of the Arctic. On the other hand, we can’t cooperate with Russia right now. This is what we are struggling with,” the anonymous policymaker said.
“It can’t be business as usual,” Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store said. “The Arctic Council is here to stay. There is so much in common, in terms of challenges and opportunities – that it would be completely irresponsible to look away from [the Council],” he said.
“Will things just go back to the normal way of doing things in the Arctic Council? I don’t think so when it comes to Russia. Is China playing a role in the Arctic region? Yes they are. Should we be aware of this? Yes,” Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said, adding that the West has to stop being “naïve” in relation to Russia and the Arctic region.
Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto warned that the bad blood between Russia and the Council’s seven Western members could result to “an Arctic with no rules, or an Arctic area with no common goal for climate change. It would be free for everyone to use for shipping routes, for raw materials.”
Moscow warned about the Arctic Council’s uncertain future last month as the organization’s presidency passed to Norway, suggesting it would “hardly be possible” for Russia to continue participating if its rights as a member state continued to be violated, and Russian representatives blacklisted from council events. Last year, Russian ambassador to the US Anatoly Antonov emphasized that any decisions taken by the Council without Russian participation would be considered null and void by Moscow.
Russia has expressed concerns about Western powers’ efforts to “consolidate under the flag of the NATO bloc” in the Arctic at the expense of institutional contacts through organizations like the Arctic Council and the Barents Euro-Arctic Council. In March, the Russian Foreign Ministry released an updated foreign policy concept, where efforts to “preserve peace and stability, enhance environmental sustainability, reduce threats to national security in the Arctic” were listed among Moscow’s top foreign policy priorities.
The United States, Norway, Denmark and other NATO members of the Arctic Council have sought to challenge Russia’s effort to build a year-round Northern Sea Route shipping artery in the Arctic, with the US mulling ‘freedom of navigation’ missions similar to the ones it carries out in Chinese-claimed waters in the South China Sea.
Russia plans to ramp up shipping through the Northern Sea Route to 80 million tons by 2024, and 270 million tons by 2035, and has spared no expense to create the necessary infrastructure and security environment for the trade route, including a fleet of dozens of nuclear and conventional diesel-electric icebreakers, plus a network of ports, search and rescue stations, and defense facilities along the country’s northern shores. The 5,600 km Northern Sea Route runs through Russia’s exclusive economic zone, stretching from the Barents and White Seas to the Sea of Okhotsk and the Bering Sea. It’s estimated that sea-based shipment of cargoes through the route could be between 40 and 60 percent faster than via major arteries like the Suez Canal and the Cape of Good Hope.
The melting waters of the Arctic are also rich in vast riches, with a 2021 study by the US military concluding that the Arctic’s waters contain up to a third of the world’s undiscovered reserves of natural gas, and over $1 trillion in rare-earth minerals.