Before January 6, 2021, an FBI “red cell” report warned that “domestic violent extremists” were “very willing to take action” in response to a disputed 2020 presidential election, but said that widespread violence was not likely.
Titled “Alternative Analysis: Potential Scenarios for Reactions of Domestic Violent Extremists to a Disputed 2020 US Presidential Election,” the report saw the FBI warn that conservative groups likely had a “high willingness to take action” but a “low capability” to do so because of law enforcement preemption and disorganization among the groups.
It also laid out two “less likely” scenarios: the groups would have both a high willingness and high capability to take action, and that the group would have low willingness and high capability.
The “least likely” scenario presented by the report said that they would “have a low willingness to take action … and those interested lack that capacity to carry out” a significant attack.
The report was received by US media in a redacted form through a Freedom of Information Act request.
The House committee to investigate the January 6 riot prepared a critique of the red cell report, but it was never published. A reporter who viewed it said the FBI “missed the forest for the trees” due to an inbuilt “lone offender bias.” The report also said the FBI failed to consider an unorganized mob could be a threat.
Law enforcement agencies, including the US Capitol Police and the FBI, have been criticized for their lack of preparedness for the riot. In March, then-Fox News host Tucker Carlson released previously unseen footage of Capitol Police officers seemingly leading rioters through the US Senate halls and even unlocking doors for them.
The January 6 committee largely took the blame off of law enforcement and put it squarely on former US President Donald Trump, arguing that his “will be wild” tweet on December 19, 2020, was a call to action.
While the US media report and the reported January 6 Committee critique seem to paint the red cell report as another failure of law enforcement, it is worth noting there was no “widespread violence” perpetrated by the rioters during the raid on the Capitol.
US media and a Senate report attributed seven deaths to the riot. However, one of those was a rioter who was shot by police. Three more were rioters who died from unrelated causes: a heart attack, a stroke and a drug overdose, according to an autopsy. Three police officer deaths were also attributed to the attack, but one died from a stroke the day after the incident and two others committed suicide in the weeks after.
Several members of the Proud Boys, a right-wing group that Trump infamously told to “stand back and stand by” during a presidential debate with US President Joe Biden, have been convicted for seditious conspiracy for their actions on January 6 and the weeks leading up to it. The group’s chairman, Enrique Tarrio received 22 years in federal prison, the longest sentence related to the riot so far.