According to two recent polls of swing state voters, Trump is beating Biden in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, while Biden maintains a small lead in Michigan. Meanwhile, two national polls have Trump ahead of Biden with registered voters by three or four percentage points.
Meanwhile, it is becoming increasingly likely that Trump will be Biden’s opponent next year. Trump leads his primary competition by around 60 percentage points nationally. While some state polls are significantly closer, most are still over 20 percentage points.
Trump’s competitors have been arguing that they are more electable, even if not as popular with Republican voters, than the former President. Former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley who, according to some polls, has recently overtaken Florida Governor Ron DeSantis as the most viable Trump alternative, has been arguing that the former President’s baggage, including a multitude of legal issues, make her more palatable to general election voters than Trump.
She also points to polls that show her performing better than Trump against Biden in several swing states. But with Trump holding a small but significant lead over Biden, primary voters are less likely to see candidate viability as a significant concern.
Meanwhile, Biden’s popularity has been crashing among voters that typically make up the voting base of the Democratic party. Trump is leading Biden among 18-29-year-olds a voting bloc by two points. By comparison, in the 2020 election, six in ten young voters supported Biden.
Another poll found that 22% of Black voters in swing states would support Trump over Biden in the next election, in 2020, Trump received just 8% of the black vote. He is also losing support among Hispanic voters.
The most significant drop came among Arab Americans in the wake of Biden’s support for Israel and its actions in Gaza. Support for Biden among Arab Americans dropped to 17% in a recent poll, down from 59% in 2020.
Biden campaign officials have noted that the election is still roughly a year away from when these polls were taken, giving them time to play makeup. However, the opposite is also true: Biden has time to fall further in the polls.
Possible Third-Party Shakeup
A possible wildcard in the election has been rising over the horizon, further complicating the election. Third-party candidates are more popular than they have been this century, with more visible and bigger names throwing their hats into the ring than in years past.
Around 16% of voters say they want neither Trump or Biden to win the election, a number that has more than quadrupled since 2020.
Leading the pack is environmental lawyer Robert F Kennedy Jr., the nephew of former US President John F. Kennedy and son of former Senator and Presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy.
Kennedy is polling higher than any third-party candidate in recent memory, receiving 22% in a poll last week. While recent polling and political donations suggest that he may appeal to former Trump voters more than former Biden voters, he is a former Democrat and his family name is still viewed favorably by Democrats.
Kennedy is currently polling high enough in most outlets to receive an invitation to the Presidential Debates next year. If Kennedy participates, he will become the first third-party candidate to enter the debates since Ross Perot in 1992. Getting into the debates proved to be a huge boost for Perot’s campaign, which briefly saw him lead both George W. Bush Sr. and Bill Clinton in the polls.
If Kennedy performs well in a nationally televised debate with Biden and Trump, there is no telling where his campaign could go.
Joining Kennedy are two candidates: Independent Cornel West and Green Party candidate Jill Stein. Either of those candidates could theoretically draw from voters who typically vote Democrat but are unsatisfied with Biden. West is currently polling in the single digits, while Stein has not been included in any polls because she just announced her campaign on Thursday.
Out on the periphery is Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) who has long been rumored to be considering a Presidential run. That speculation was fueled earlier this week when the conservative Democrat announced that he does not plan to seek reelection.
It has been suspected by some that Manchin will join the No Labels party, a recently created political party that has positioned itself for centrists. However, it is worth pointing out that Manchin was trailing in the polls in West Virginia and has the highest national unfavorability rating of any sitting US Senator.