A senior Bundeswehr commander has admitted that the West underestimated the Russian military’s staying power and the ability of the country’s defense sector to adjust to crushing Western sanctions.
“At the beginning, we didn’t see the Russians ability to endure as we perceive it today,” Major General Christian Freuding, the head of the Bundeswehr’s Ukraine Situation Center and senior aid to Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, told local media.
“We also did not realize that they would succeed in what we are now clearly observing: the buildup of their military-industrial complex, its expansion, and an increase in its production capacity, in spite of the draconian sanctions regime,” Freuding said.
“Russia still manages to recruit personnel,” the general noted. “And of course we are seeing these huge investments in the arms industry, which are also accompanied by increased capacity and expansion, especially in the production of ammunition,” he added.
Freuding also admitted that the hopes Kiev and its allies had for the stalled summer counteroffensive were “certainly exaggerated in retrospective,” but nonetheless aped talking points presently being used in Washington and other NATO capitals to justify the $200 billion in weapons and other support sent to Kiev over the past 22 months.
“80 percent of Ukraine is still free, after two years [of battle] against a alleged military great power. They regained 50 percent of the territory they lost. The Russian Black Sea Fleet has been de facto pushed out of the western Black Sea,” the Bundeswehr general said. Ukraine has also been “successful” in “carrying out strikes in depth behind Russian lines, including with self-built weapons systems,” he assured.
Freuding blamed the disastrous failure of Ukraine’s summer counteroffensive on the lack of air support and air defense systems, and said the latter have been stretched thin by Russian strikes.
“Additionally, Ukraine attacked extremely well-prepared Russian positions which were mined and barricaded to a degree that we have probably never seen on this scale before,” Freuding said. This, he said, cost Ukraine time and forced its troops to take “high losses” by clearing the mines by hand in the dead of night.
Notwithstanding the horrific losses suffered by Ukraine and the failure of Kiev’s counteroffensive, the German general emphasized the need to continue supporting the Zelensky regime’s maximalist push to restore Ukrainian control over its lost regions instead of sitting down at the negotiating table.
For Germany, lessons from the Ukrainian crisis include recognition of the significance of drone warfare to modern conflicts, Freuding said. “We have now set up a drone task force. It should enable us to quickly introduce different types of drones and drone defense systems into the forces so that we can also start training and experimenting,” the commander, who also heads the Defense Ministry’s planning staff, said.
Ultimately, Freuding urged Berlin to make use of 5-8 year “window of time” he believes Germany now has to rearm and train up its own armed forces for a potential conflict against Russia.
Germany has invested heavily in NATO’s proxy war against Russia in Ukraine, committing over $23 billion in military, economic and humanitarian aid – not counting its commitments via EU institutions. That’s more than any other country besides the United States, according to data compiled by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
The German government’s position on Ukraine has taken an economic toll on the country, which has slipped in and out of recession and faced the loss of hundreds of major industrial enterprises which have left Germany for the US, where energy costs are lower and tax breaks plentiful.
Militarily as well, Germany has paid dearly for its support for Kiev, with the Bundeswehr reportedly having enough ammunition to last just 48 hours in the event of a hot war, and lacking the resources to assemble even a single new 20,000 troop-strong combat ready division.
Russian President Vladimir Putin warned back in March that the US and its allies wouldn’t be able to outproduce Russia in the Ukrainian conflict, saying that for every artillery shell or tank NATO builds and sends to Kiev, Russia will be able to make three or more. A year earlier, Putin warned European countries that their “suicidal” decision to stop purchases of Russian energy would lead to their economic downfall.