Crude oil futures surged, brushing off previous shortfalls amidst concerns over the bleak global demand forecasts for 2024.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained $1.39 for March, ending at $78.03 per barrel, just as April’s Brent contract closed at $82.86 for each barrel, marking an increase of $1.26.
The weakening dollar lent support to oil prices as January US retail sales missed projections, Phil Flynn, Price Futures Group analyst, told CNBC.
At the outset of the trading session, futures slid about 1 percent after the International Energy Agency (IEA) revised its demand growth estimate to 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) for 2024, reflecting a significant drop from the 2.3 million bpd growth last year.
Meanwhile, supply is forecast to outpace demand and climb by 1.7 million per barrel this year, mainly due to production hikes in the US, Brazil, Canada, and increased output in Guyana, the IEA noted.
“The expansive post-pandemic growth phase in global oil demand has largely run its course,” according to IEA’s February oil market report on Thursday.
According to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' (OPEC) projections, the oil market is set to tighten considerably this year, driven by a demand surge of 2.2 million bpd, exceeding the daily production growth of 1.2 million barrels outside the cartel.
“IEA and OPEC are engaged in a battle of the experts, but the market always gives more credence to OPEC since this is the group that actually produces and trades oil, and therefore has better market insight,” Manish Raj, Velandera Energy Partners’ managing director told CNBC.
Factors Influencing Global Oil Prices
Oil is frequently regarded as the most fluctuating of commodities. Several factors impact oil prices worldwide, directly and indirectly:
OPEC influences oil prices by establishing production targets or quotas for its members. The concentration of substantial oil reserves within OPEC member nations fortifies the cartel's capacity to control oil prices globally.
Geopolitical tensions, like the fallout from the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and the looming possibility of its extension to neighboring oil-producing states, have heightened doubt regarding oil shipment worldwide. Targeted attacks on shipping vessels by the Houthis in the critical Red Sea maritime route have amplified these crises. The Red Sea is integral to the global oil supply. These attacks have caused extended transit durations and increased shipping costs for oil, undermining the market's readiness to handle potential future supply disruptions.
The strength or weakness of the greenback compared to foreign currencies affects the attractiveness of crude oil contracts to international investors, as a stronger US dollar detracts from the appeal of investing in the black gold's contracts for investors.
Periodic oil market forecasts, reports, and statistics detailing oil production, imports, and consumption levels by West Texas Intermediate, OPEC, IEA’s monthly oil market reports, and others are determinants of price volatility.
How Does Oil Prices Affect Consumers?
Crude oil is one of the most essentially traded commodities worldwide, with over 4,000 byproducts; its impact is far-reaching for the economy and other aspects of human endeavor, according to a media report. An oil price upswing pushes inflation levels higher, impacting household’s purchasing power, transportation fares, prices of goods, and energy prices.