US attorney and special counsel Robert Hur reignited a fierce intra-party debate among Democrats last week that, in truth, had never completely died down. Hur’s eyebrow-raising commentary – which described US President Joe Biden as an “elderly man with a poor memory” – rekindled arguments the 81-year-old career politician is too old to serve another term.
Hur’s comment apparently reflected the views of most Americans, with 86% of respondents in a recent poll saying the octogenarian leader is too old to run again. Even a solid 71% of Democrats have said as much in recent surveys. Hur’s commentary fell on fertile ground, with some commentators claiming the ensuing media cycle represented the nadir of Biden’s time as president.
But others quickly came to the president’s defense. One such example of apologetics came from MSNBC columnist Michael Cohen, who argued that “Democratic voters haven’t shown any interest in forcing Biden out.”
“Barring a health emergency, Joe Biden will be the Democratic nominee in November,” Cohen wrote defiantly in an editorial published earlier this week. “And, as crazy as it might sound to say this about an 81-year-old presidential incumbent with an approval rating in the high 30s, that is probably the best option for Democrats.”
Cohen argues that any of the potential alternatives to Biden’s renewed candidacy in the form of a last-minute substitution of an untested replacement would prove more perilous than the scenario Democrats already face. What’s more, Cohen suggests Biden’s nomination for a second term is not just the safest option for the party, but the most democratic one.
“What party elites definitely don’t have is the power to oust an incumbent president if he doesn’t want to be ousted,” writes Cohen. “A century ago, in the proverbial smoke-filled rooms at national conventions, party bosses could push an unpopular incumbent by the wayside. But those days are long gone.”
“The only way to get rid of an incumbent president is via a primary challenge,” he concludes. “Based on the early primary results in which Biden won 89% of the vote in Nevada and 96% in South Carolina, we can safely assume that won’t happen this year.”
The Democratic Party’s nomination process may indeed be more democratic in 2024 than it was in decades past. But it’s still far from ideal. What Cohen ignores in his analysis is Biden’s almost insurmountable financial advantage, with none of his primary opponents able to hope to amass the kind of financial warchest he enjoys as the de-facto leader of the Democratic Party.
In America’s pay-to-play electoral system, candidates who spend more money in their campaigns almost always win. Outsiders are simply unable to raise the funds necessary to launch themselves into the public conversation, even if most mainstream media coverage weren’t already overwhelmingly skewed to benefit party favorites.
Cohen may also paint an overly-rosy picture of the Biden campaign’s handling of certain issues. “[Biden is] an incumbent president,” he writes, “and as long as the country is not in a recession, fighting an unpopular war or in the midst of a global pandemic, incumbents usually win reelection.”
The COVID pandemic may indeed have passed, but President Biden is presiding over two highly controversial proxy wars in Gaza and Ukraine.
It’s also not clear the US economy is out of the woods, with recent inflation figures pouring cold water on speculation the Federal Reserve may soon lower interest rates. The UK recently entered recession territory, suggesting Western countries still face significant economic challenges given our current moment of global instability. Unless things dramatically change between now and November, the United States is likely to enter election season with a significant rate of inflation and an historically high cost of living.
Given the significant challenges Americans face, it’s easy to see why they might prefer an alternative. Which raises the question: have Democrats chosen Biden as their candidate, or have they simply acquiesced to a system that offers them no alternative?