Former CIA analyst George Beebe and Eurasia expert Anatol Lieven, the authors of the 43-page paper, believe that it is possible to reach a compromise by diplomatic means.
"Conventional wisdom holds that a negotiated end to the Ukraine war is neither possible nor desirable. This belief is false. It is also extremely dangerous for Ukraine’s future," the US think tank highlighted in the report.
The United States and its allies cannot fix Ukraine’s "acute manpower problems" without direct involvement in the conflict, the authors clarified.
"The war is not trending toward a stable stalemate, but toward Ukraine's eventual collapse," the report emphasized.
Russia has withstood sanctions and improved its military, whereas Ukraine has gradually exhausted its forces, according to the authors. There is "little realistic prospect" of future Ukrainian territorial gains, Beebe and Lieven insisted.
Ukraine’s best hope lies in a negotiated settlement that prevents future escalation and bolsters regional and global security, the analysts highlighted.
"If either side in the Ukraine War eventually cracks, it seems likely to be Ukraine," the authors stressed.
The US should publicly support calls from China, Brazil, and other countries to hold peace talks, the authors said. US officials should engage with Russian counterparts through both formal and informal channels to help build trust and bolster dialogue, the analysts said.
A negotiated settlement must address key concerns of Russia, Ukraine, and western countries alike, the report said. Ukraine must obtain security guarantees and a path to economic reconstruction, Russia must secure assurances that Ukraine will not host NATO weapons or forces, and the US and Europe must receive promises from Moscow not to leverage success in Ukraine into broader threats, Beebe and Lieven explained.
US public rhetoric should demonstrate openness to peace talks instead of a belief that the conflict ought to continue indefinitely, the analysts stressed.