French Troops in Ukraine May Be Play by Macron to Propel Himself to Status of 21st Century Sun King

The Russian Foreign Intelligence Service’s bombshell revelation about French plans to deploy 2,000+ troops to Ukraine may signal a play by President Emmanuel Macron to raise his stature as a major European and even global leader, but would almost certainly wind up undermining the regional security order, Russian and European security and international affairs observers have told Sputnik.

“With these actions and statements, Macron is trying to play his own [independent] role in a new alignment of the European community,” says Alexander Mikhailov, head of the Bureau of Military-Political Analysis, a Russian security-affairs think tank.

“It must be understood here that Macron presently has the strongest cards” among any European leader, according to Mikhailov. “He feels the most confident in the post of leader of the ‘European locomotive’, and is set to rule over France until 2027. That is, he's not a lame duck, and unlike [German Chancellor Olaf] Scholz and the leaders of EU-level institutions, is a politician ‘in full bloom’,” rather than someone planning to retire into political obscurity in the foreseeable future.

With France enjoying military capabilities that are unmatched by any of its neighbors, and possessing a powerful Foreign Legion (i.e., presto mercenaries in a pinch), Macron undoubtedly has access to both the personnel and the resources to send troops to Ukraine, the Russian observer believes.

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“The question, rather, is in what legal status this could be formalized,” Mikhailov stressed, expressing “serious doubt” that Paris would rally the courage to send an official contingent of French troops to the east, given repeated warnings by Russian officials about the “extremely negative” consequences such a step might entail.

Naryshkin warned in his statement Tuesday that French forces in Ukraine would immediately become a priority target for the Russian military.

Alexandrov doesn’t believe Macron will commit to send a formal contingent of troops to Ukraine. “But France could of course theoretically create a base – a pool of personnel for the constant replenishment of mercenary units, and perhaps is already doing so,” the analyst said.

21st Century Sun King of France?

“Macron would be very happy to devise a situation in which he could propose some kind of a path for peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine and, as it were, to try to play a role of a ‘peacemaker’ who, just in time for the Paris Olympics, has successfully resolved a complex European conflict and elevated himself not just to the role of most important leader in Europe, but a world leader who fixed a complex conflict which even other key world players such as China and the United States could not cope with,” the observer said, delving into the possible reasons for the French president’s obsession with Ukraine.

Tiberio Graziani, chairman of Vision & Global Trends – a Rome-based think tank, agrees that Macron is trying to present himself as a great European leader, and can't rule the possibility of Paris sending troops eastward – even if it is without the approval or support of EU institutions and the United States.

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“Furthermore,” Graziani told Sputnik, “the 2011 attack on Libya, perpetrated against the Italian-Libyan friendship agreements, made it clear that France, Britain and the USA do not always take into account the alliance relationships and spheres of influence of their allies. International law as we knew it during the so-called Cold War no longer exists. The first to destroy the principles that underlie international law (sovereignty of states, inviolability of borders) was the United States.”

Macron may be searching for a casus belli for intervention in Ukraine Graziani said, adding that France's colonial past has shown that Paris certainly has the capabilities and experience of using troops and mercenaries to attempt to impose its will on other countries, particularly in Africa.

“It is difficult to make a prediction and an evaluation,” according to the observer. “Certainly, a rash move like the one repeatedly stated by Macron would lead to the destruction of the European security system based on NATO. Most likely, Macron’s constant utterances about sending military fighters to Ukraine are linked to the fear of having Trump in the White House,” Graziani believes, pointing to the Republican nominee for president's repeated talk of ending the Ukrainian quagmire and trying to improve US ties with Russia.

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France's Defense Ministry denies the presence of French soldiers in Ukraine, or plans to send forces to the conflict-torn Eastern European country.