According to new opinion polls, France’s Renaissance (RE) party is trailing the far-right National Rally (RN) by a far second place. A recent article published on Wednesday by The Guardian, says the blame for the RE’s poor polling rests with President Emmanuel Macron. The parties were tied in the last European election which took place five years ago.
Elections for the European Parliament will take place between June 6 and June 9. The elections will be a clear sign for how the presidential election in France, in 2027, will unfold.
Macron, 46, “has himself to blame for his political predicament”, the article suggests. The French president is “barely two years into his second term in the Élysée Palace, yet lacking a parliamentary majority at home and with his government under the permanent threat of a no-confidence motion.”
“[Macron] has so personalized his style of governance that voters blame him for everything from the cost of living to the rise of youth violence and the risk of terrorism during this summer’s Paris Olympic Games,” according to the news outlet.
The RN is being led by Jordan Bardella, who became the president of the party in 2022. Bardella is just 28-years-old and does not carry the same legacy as his party’s former president, Marine Le Pen, though he reportedly said that he first joined the party due to Le Pen’s influence. But while Le Pen’s influence on the RN is still palpable, young voters are more drawn to Bardella.
Macron was elected in 2017, becoming France’s youngest head of state apart from Napoleon Bonaparte. But now, Macron is seemingly flailing to keep up with the desires of the French public.
“I think it is less about ‘Frenchness’ in this election than as portraying the people don’t feel that they belong, the people who feel they have been humiliated, either economically - not making ends meet, not being recognized, not seeing themselves represented in parliament nor politics,” said Cécile Alduy, a Professor of French at Stanford University, explained to a German broadcaster.
A separate survey published in March, shows that Macron’s party has fallen out of favorability among young French voters. Just 4% of those aged 18 to 24-years-old expressed their intention of voting for Macron’s party next month, compared to 29% among those over the age of 70.
Alduy explains that the reason for this is because those who are younger have little to no historical memory regarding Nazism during World War II, as the RN has been criticized for failing to rid itself of its antisemitic heritage.
Another article by Financial Times explains Macron’s drop in popularity with an opinion poll from February which showed the main preoccupation of French voters is the cost of living. According to that poll, a drop in consumer confidence amongst the French shows a pessimism about their future.
Another issue regarding France’s economy includes their high budget deficit which skyrocketed last year to 5.5% of the GDP, according to the newspaper. “Macron’s government has already had to announce emergency spending cuts, and more may be on their way in areas such as social benefits and local government budgets”, the newspaper suggests, adding that this could affect the results of the 2027 election.
But the news outlet adds that while many French people use the EU elections as a way to cast protest votes against their presidents and governments, many may vote differently in a national election.