Viktor Orban has announced a legal effort to “redefine” Hungary’s NATO status.
“Our lawyers and officers are hard at work to see how Hungary can maintain its NATO membership in a way that it wouldn’t have to take part in NATO actions outside of NATO territory,” the prime minister said in an interview with Hungarian radio on Friday.
Orban reiterated his belief – contrary to claims made by NATO leaders, that Russia is unlikely to attack any alliance member after the end of the conflict in Ukraine, and emphasized that while Budapest is committed to collective defense, financing and arms to Ukraine are not part of this equation.
“There have not been many situations in the history of NATO when a member state would stick to the basic idea of NATO as openly and clearly as Hungary does now, and therefore…its position within the military alliance would have to be redefined,” Orban said.
The PM also criticized NATO “war planning” amid escalating tensions with Russia, saying “it is as if everyone is already in a different future,” and “simply refuses to consider these arguments beyond a polite hearing.”
“We indicated in advance that we do not approve of this, and we do not want to participate in financial or armament support [in Ukraine, ed.], not even within the framework of NATO. Therefore, our situation is an odd ‘we are there, but we’re not’ one. I don’t know how long this can be maintained,” Orban said.
The Hungarian leader’s intransigence on Ukraine is not a new phenomenon. Through the entire course of the crisis, Orban has staunchly advocated for immediate peace negotiations, and refused to allow alliance countries to use his country’s territory to ship weapons to Ukraine.
Going back further, in 1999, during the NATO aerial assault on Yugoslavia, Orban rejected President Bill Clinton’s attempts to maneuver Hungary into a ground invasion of its southern neighbor despite heavy pressure from Washington and London.
Orban’s review of Hungary’s status in NATO signals Hungary’s unwillingness to walk “lockstep with whatever the other NATO countries want to do – because he doesn’t see the imperative to confront Russia,” recognizing that doing so would be “suicidal” for Budapest, says Michael Maloof, a former senior security policy analyst at the Office of the Secretary of Defense.
Budapest’s public-facing position is unusual, Maloof told Sputnik, but Orban may have the ear of some major alliance members, like Germany, who are increasingly coming to recognize that “any attempt to have a confrontation at this point with Russia would be futile,” particularly “considering the juggernaut the Russian forces have now become, given that they’re now battle tested, battle-hardened.”
Orban is a realist acting in Hungary’s self-interest, including its interest in self-preservation, according to the analyst, basically telling Budapest’s allies that if they want to go ahead and fight the Russians, they can count Hungary out.
“When you have little countries such as Estonia beating their chests and trying to take on Russia, it’s just silly. It’s ludicrous. They are out of their minds. They think ‘well, we’ve got big brother back there, the United States is going to protect us.’ Don’t count on it,” Maloof emphasized.
“It looks like Orban has thought it over and he doesn't think a war is a good idea. He tends to be friendly with Russia, more so than, let's say Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, certainly. He's aware of the realities in [his] landlocked country. Hungary requires resources and Moscow, Russia has provided those resources and there should be that level of cooperation among all the nations,” Maloof said.