US-South Korea Nuclear Strategy Could be Aimed at Russia and China

US President Joe Biden and his South Korean counterpart Yoon Suk-yeol have authorized a joint nuclear pact after it was signed by defense officials in July. The agreement is called "US-Republic of Korea Guidelines for Nuclear Deterrence and Nuclear Operations on the Korean Peninsula."

The recent agreement could be aimed at Russia and China in the first place, while the perceived threat from North Korea is used as just a pretext for the military and, possibly, a nuclear buildup, Konstantin Asmolov of the Moscow-based Institute for China and Modern Asia Studies with the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Sputnik.

According to him, the US is ready to justify any actions aimed at preparing for a large-scale conflict with China and Russia in the Asia-Pacific region by the "North Korean nuclear threat."

"Despite the fact that formally the document is about containment, it is likely to aggravate tensions," Asmolov said. "In essence, it's about the return of permanent stationing nuclear weapons in the Korean Peninsula and the American nuclear 'umbrella' over South Korea."

Under the new accords, the US would commit "specific nuclear assets" for deterrence of Seoul's northern neighbor, explained Kim Tae-hyo, a deputy national security director in South Korea, as quoted by the Associated Press. The news outlet has argued that it does not necessarily mean the US will permanently station nuclear weapons on the peninsula, adding, however, that specifics of the guidelines aren't available.

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The US first deployed its nuclear weapons in South Korea in 1958, whereas in 1991 these nukes were withdrawn from the peninsula under President George H.W. Bush.

Previously, Seoul and Pyongyang made several attempts to reach a consensus on the region. Despite the reconciliation process between North and South Korea appearing to get a second wind after being brokered by the Trump administration, Team Biden reversed the strategy pursued by its predecessors.

The Biden administration has also backed President Yoon who openly vowed to crack down on "Communist Pyongyang" after assuming office. Since 2022, Washington and Seoul have stepped up joint military exercises disregarding vocal protests from Pyongyang. As a result, in January 2024 North Korea announced it would no longer seek reconciliation and reunification with the South.

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As tensions continue to grow, South Korea feels insecure and has requested additional guarantees from Washington, according to Dr. Zhang Baohui, director of the Centre for Asian Pacific Studies at Lingnan University in Hong Kong.

"This new agreement is just another attempt by the US to quiet Seoul’s increasing sense of insecurity," Baohui told Sputnik.

"It is also Washington’s way to dissuade Seoul from developing its own nuclear weapons. In recent years, more and more South Koreans are suggesting an independent nuclear capability as they do not trust US extended nuclear deterrence. Washington does not want to see this development and is therefore willing to toughen the message on extended nuclear deterrence."

The question is, however, whether the US is ready to wage a nuclear war with North Korea for the sake of South Korea, as "the credibility of US extended deterrence is steadily being eroded," Baohui said.