While F-16 jets are indeed designed to counter relatively slow-moving airborne targets like cruise missiles, the effectiveness of these planes against Russian air raids is questionable, says Russian military analyst Dmitry Drozdenko.
“Using fighters to attack Geran-class drones is pointless, if only because the missiles used against them are much more expensive than the drones themselves,” Drozdenko explains.
He further notes that any Russian group airstrike would involve up to twenty cruise missiles and the F-16 jets donated to Ukraine are unlikely to be able to shoot all these missiles down.
“I think they will try to engage in air combat and attempt to attack our Su-34 [jets] that currently inflict serious damage upon Ukrainian fortifications thanks to glide bombs with the universal gliding and correction module,” Drozdenko says when asked how else Kiev may try to use these F-16s.
“As for our response, we have Su-30s and Su-35s, aircraft that are more advanced that these F-16s. And I know that our pilots are preparing to meet the enemy in our skies,” he notes.
According to Drozdenko, the range of Russian warplanes’ radar systems and the range of their air-to-air missiles exceed those of the radar and missiles used by F-16 so Russian have all the means to deal with the new threat.
“The only answer to this situation is to destroy this hardware, just like those Leopard and Abrams tanks,” he says.
Drozdenko also speculates that Kiev may opt to station F-16s in Poland or in Romania to keep them safe from Russian airstrikes.
An F-16 would then fly to an airstrip to quickly rearm and refuel, fly a sortie from that Ukrainian airfield and then quickly flee back to an airbase in one of the two aforementioned NATO countries.