It is very unlikely that the EU, acting as an “agent of NATO,” will succeed in turning Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan against Russia, Dr. Marco Marsili, researcher at Ca' Foscari University of Venice, told Sputnik.
EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell is visiting the two Central Asian nations as part of an effort to drive a wedge between them and Russia, Marsili said. He pointed out that Brussels has desperately been trying to gain influence within the post-Soviet republics.
Regarding Kazakhstan, Borrell “aims to weaken the ties between Astana and Moscow which are deeply rooted, spanning from the Baikonur Cosmodrome to the common membership in the Commonwealth of Independent States, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the Eurasian Economic Union, and the Collective Security Treaty Organization,” Marsili, who holds research positions in major civil and military institutions in Portugal, the UK, and Italy, said.
He recalled the January 2022 developments, when a violent uprising erupted in Almaty. According to Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, the main goal of those fueling the wave of protests was to undermine the constitutional order, seize power, and attempt a coup.
Russian President Vladimir Putin later stated that "Maidan technologies" similar to those used in Ukraine in 2014 had been resorted to in Kazakhstan, with the country facing a genuine threat to its statehood. Putin warned that what started as peaceful protests against higher gas prices in Kazakhstan and quickly escalated into violent riots was not the first and would not be the last attempt to meddle in the region from abroad.
Looking back at how those events played out, and the currently emerging foundations for building a new security architecture in Eurasia, Dr. Marco Marsili added:
“In my opinion, the relationship between the two countries is too strong to be severed, and it is very unlikely that the Kazakh leadership will shift from the alliance with Russia to an alliance with Western powers.”
The European Union’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, is visiting Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan from August 1 to 3. The trip to the region has been presented as a chance to “reaffirm the EU's dedication to strengthening ties with both nations” of the Central Asian region. The tour started with Kazakhstan on August 1, with Borrell meeting Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Murat Nurtleu. On Saturday, Borrell will reportedly hold a bilateral meeting in Kyrgyzstan with Foreign Minister Jeenbek Kulubaev.
As far as the visit to Kyrgyzstan is concerned, it is “an attempt to re-attract the country into the Western sphere of influence” after President Sadyr Japarov enacted a law tightening state control over foreign-funded non-governmental organizations (NGOs), Marsili said. According to him, “it’s quite impossible that the executive of Bishkek will switch alliances.”
He underscored that Kyrgyzstan “resulted in a significant failure for Western powers, as the country was heavily funded by the USAID program, the EU External Action and other European nations like Switzerland, in an attempt to install a Western-mirrored state in Central Asia.”
Brussels’ efforts targeting countries that “play a pivotal role in the Russian neighboring policy” are very unlikely to gain traction, Dr. Marsili reiterated.