According to the poll, 42% of registered voters in Pennsylvania said they had already voted or planned to vote for Harris, while the same number backed Trump.
Voter motivation has increased significantly, with 81% of respondents saying they are extremely motivated to vote this year, up from 75% a month ago. Among that group, Trump and Harris are tied at 48% support. Last month's figures were 50% for Harris and 46% for Trump.
“Trump’s path to victory in Pennsylvania is by turning out low-propensity voters. In a normal election this may be difficult to do. For many, their lack of participation is due to an underlying distrust in government itself. Being drawn out to participate in the democratic process by Trump’s ‘burn it down’ appeal could be the ultimate irony,” Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute, said.
The poll was conducted by phone and online on October 24-28, 2024 among 824 Pennsylvania registered voters, with a margin of error +/- 3.8 percentage points, in West Long Branch, New Jersey.