Theresa May's Brexit Deal May Cost UK Economy '£100bn' by 2030, Says New Report

Theresa May's Brexit deal could cost the UK economy a whopping £100 billion ($128.3 billion) by 2030, according to a new report by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR).

The Report, titled ‘The Economic Effects of the Government's proposed Brexit Deal,' argues that the total value of Britain's economy would shrink by roughly 3.9% by 2030 compared with the country's economic trajectory were it to remain in the EU. 

The authors warn that "this is the equivalent of losing the economic output of Wales or the City of London."

​The findings, which are likely to embolden pro-EU remainders who argue that the UK is economically better off in the EU, comes a matter of weeks before members of parliament will be required to vote on Prime Minister May's Brexit agreement, which was given the stamp of approval by EU leaders on Sunday November 25, 2018. The vote is slated for December 12.

The withdrawal bill lays out the terms of the UK's departure from the EU. This includes London having to pay a so-called ‘divorce bill' of £39 billion, preserves the rights of EU citizens living in the UK and vice versa, as well as a Northern Ireland ‘backstop,' which keeps the Irish border open in the event that bilateral trade talks fail between Brussels and London.

​Yet, NIESR's report grimly forecasts that Miss May's plan will leave Britain vulnerable to a raft of new trade barriers. Moreover, they say that under the current deal, bilateral trade between the UK and EU will plunge by a staggering 46% by 2030.

"Our key finding is that if the Government's proposed Brexit deal is implemented so that the UK leaves the EU Customs Union and Single Market in 2021, then by 2030 GDP will be around 4 per cent lower than it would have been had the UK stayed in the EU," the think tank says.

​"This is largely because higher impediments to services trade make it less attractive to sell services from the UK. This discourages investment in the UK and ultimately means that UK workers are less productive than they would have been if the UK had stayed in the EU."

Despite the report's stark and doom-laden warnings, Eurosceptics are likely to raise an eyebrow of mistrust, considering that it was carried out on behalf of the so-called ‘people's vote campaign,' which explicitly calls for a public vote on the terms of any final Brexit deal. 

​Yet, that hasn't stopped some pro-EU MPs from pointing to the report as qualifying evidence that the UK must hold a second vote on Miss May's agreement.

Among others, Labour MP for Wolverhampton South East, Pat McFadden, has been quoted as saying that the report "shows the reality of this deal" and that it will "leave Britain tens of billions of pounds poorer than if we stuck with the deal we've got."

"That should be the real choice offered to the British people now," he reportedly added.    

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