Sputnik: The polls already predict victory for Netanyahu, despite the anti-corruption investigation and fragility of his coalition in parliament. Why is that?
Gideon Rahat: I don't think that the polls predict victory [for] anyone. The Israeli system is highly fragmented. The polls only predict that the Likud would be the largest party with 30 seats, that's a quarter of the seats in the Knesset, while the other parties will get much less than that. In Israel, if you want to govern, you need to build a coalition.
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So, if the polls are correct, if this is the picture, Netanyahu will have a hard time building a new coalition. So, I'm not sure that it would be such a huge victory, because it's not clear whether the current coalition, the governing coalition, will hold its 61 seats, or whether he will need more partners, which will make government formation much more complicated.
Sputnik: Do you think that there's going to be any major change in Israeli politics? Can you tell us about the results of this issue surrounding the conscription of Orthodox Jews?
Whenever they come [up] with some kind of a political compromise, this compromise is found to be unconstitutional, because it discriminates people who are not religious and so the court wouldn't let it go.
I think this hot potato is with us and it will be with us for a long time. It may be an issue in elections, an issue that really makes some people mad, because they see it as a breach of equality, but I don't think that this is the important issue for the next election.
Sputnik: And yet, some say that this issue and the controversy around it led to the dissolution of parliament; that's kind of a big deal, isn't it?
Gideon Rahat: You know, sometimes when you need justifications, you find them. I'm not sure that this is the thing, and I don't see what the outcome is. Is it a solution to something? If it's a problem, you'll have to solve it later on. So, I don't see what the big deal there is. It's a casus belli, it's a reason to go, it's a justification, but it's not the main factor that has led to the early elections.
Sputnik: The Likud Party, after the resignation of the country's Defence Minister Avigdor Lieberman, is left with just a one seat majority. What do you think the results will be? The polls are still showing that Likud will remain in the majority, but will there be a strong enough majority to be able to lead?
Gideon Rahat: That's the main issue. I mean, you will have to build a coalition government and even if you look at the polls, you can see that the Israeli voters are spread all over and the party system is fragmented. So it would be hard for anyone, even for Netanyahu, to build a coalition after the election.
Sputnik: Meanwhile, the White House has said it already took the April vote into account in regards to the Israeli-Palestinian plan. Washington doesn't want the election to be a referendum on the ultimate deal. There're so many things going on that are dependent on this vote; when will that plan be rolled out?
Gideon Rahat: You know it all has to do with the way that Mr. Trump will wake up in the morning. He will tweet something and something will happen. I don't see any system there.
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So, it's a question for him; it's a question about his mood. I don't think that it's about very specific planning; and all of these claims that it would be a great deal that it would be something new… It would really surprise me if he comes [up] with something new that both sides will be happy about.
Sputnik: Experts are also saying that no matter how little we know about the Israeli-Palestinian plan, it is unlikely to please either side. Can you comment on where political will stands regarding that plan and what kind of plan is needed to please the two sides?
The Palestinians will surely have to give up on the right of return of the Palestinians to the territories that are within the green line; Israel will likely have to give up on many of the territories and also maybe parts of East Jerusalem.
So, it's a compromise and I don't see how both sides can be happy about it unless President Trump comes up with a new machine that will duplicate Israel and give the whole country to the Palestinians, and at the same time [it will give] the whole country to the Jews.
The views expressed in this article are those of the speaker and do not necessarily reflect those of Sputnik.
