Sputnik: What do you think about the proposed plan?
Professor Amelia Hadfield: I would say at this point it is deeply ambiguous. The plan seems to suggest a customs border on the island of Ireland - but he is insisting that the proposals will demonstrate that new checks, new controls will be very light touch. But the actual implementation of them, the actual putting them together - he is alleging he's going to be very light touch. So that's kind of the first stop. Beyond that, the Johnson plan will involve Northern Ireland staying under the EU single market regulations, with regards to food, to agriculture and some manufactured goods - anything that has to do with food - probably for about four years.
So it rather leaves Northern Ireland a sort of agricultural zone, closer to the regulatory alignment of the European Union - in a sort of special relationship if you like with the EU - until about 2025 or so. Beyond that, you've got one or two other additions - the suggestion that the Northern Irish parliament Stormont in 2025 will then be given a decision about what they want to do next. They will at that point decide - whether to remain and continue with their sort of alignment with EU standards on manufactured goods - or revert back to wherever Britain is at that point, as the country diverges. I would typify this as a sort of hybrid plan - that would be my word for it - it is a combination of the Theresa May backstop - because it clearly tries to avoid a hard border - but it's also got some customs structures attached to it. So it's, therefore, something of a new suggestion. My feeling is it's going to go down very poorly with the Irish side. I think Leo Varadkar already has said it's a non-starter. He's not pleased at all.
I don't think he's going to get much support there - and I'm also concerned that I think the Brussels perspective at this point is probably not to look particularly favourably on it - because any actual customs infrastructure, however light touch, is going to be very difficult to justify it. The EU will only feel that this can be waved through if Ireland itself supports it. So there is a bit of a sticky situation. It's unlikely that Ireland will say yes. So, the EU is… the other 26 are not going to force that - they’re certainly not going to force the Irish arm at this point. At the same time – let’s be really brutal here - time is really running out - and I think this is beginning. I mean, I keep saying this everybody keeps saying - but I think now we're probably closer than we've ever been to the sense of the final hour. I think the EU may feel that a bad deal at this point or even a weak - has some merit.
So I think they're going to be inclined to say - let's look, let's look and see what we can do. I think they know that rejecting it out of hand will not produce any diplomatic advantage. They want to take and make best use of the time they have between now and the summit in Brussels in the middle of October. So I think they will engage in negotiations. But what comes out of - what Johnson has called the secret tunnel of negotiations - is pretty unclear at this point. I think the idea of a return of a customs border on the island of Ireland - it's going to be very difficult to see that actually being approved by Ireland and by the European Union.
Sputnik: In what position is Boris Johnson right now?
Professor Amelia Hadfield: That's a great question. He's attempting to recover from probably one of the worst weeks in political history. He has yet to win a vote on the floor of the House of Commons. He's been badly bruised by the unanimous ruling of the UK Supreme Court last week which deemed prorogation to have been not just unlawful - but in fact to have never happened. He's fighting back with punchy domestic politics and policies - which he's laid out through his ministers at the at the Conservative Party conference.
So he's trying to fight back. I think he’s using two things - one - obviously much more punchy domestic promises and these have been unveiled by various ministers and Manchester at the Conservative Party conference - but also two - and I watched it just now - an absolute sort of kamikaze approach to Brexit at this point saying and trying to keep people on his side by saying - listen I have a deal, but be assured that if Brussels say no to that deal – then no deal. And that's I think that you know that probably sounds to his supporters like a winning combination - because either way he wins - if Brussels say OK you've got a deal - he's the prime minister that came back with a deal.
If Brussels says no-deal - he's the prime minister that's stood up for British interests and said - forget it we're going to do it our way. So for those who support him - he can do no wrong. But he has seen his parliamentary support ebb away. I think just in terms of the goodwill - because he's behaved spectacularly poorly and in a very uncivilized manner - in fact, not even prorogation was the biggest mistake. The big mistake was withdrawing the whip. It's actually kicking out 21 very high ranking, very respected moderate conservatives and that's good this thing. It's interesting that these were the conservatives who have been very lauded. They've been very supported and warmly welcomed at the Conservative Party conference. So if he tried to make them sort of pariahs - it just hasn't worked. So he's deepened some really worrying tensions I think within his own party. I can't say he's particularly well-liked in the country. I think some people who really want Brexit are just prepared to hold their nose and just let him have his way.
