Reports about the alleged plans to suspend Moscow from the OPEC+ oil cut deal are a deliberate attempt to mislead people as Russia could be exempted from cuts only if its production is negatively affected by political circumstances, like it was with Iran and Venezuela, Mamdouh Salameh, an international energy economist and visiting professor of energy economics at the ESCP Europe Business School in London, told Sputnik.
"If a member of OPEC is facing political upheavals or sanctions or even a civil war affecting its oil production like Iran, Venezuela and Libya, they are normally exempted from any production cuts under the OPEC+ production cuts agreement. This automatically excludes Russia since its oil production and exports have hardly been affected by the Ukraine conflict. Moreover, nobody wants to suspend Russia from the OPEC+ agreement," Salameh said, adding that such reports are "a deliberate disinformation and therefore it should be ignored."
According to the expert, if Russia is producing short of its OPEC+ quota, the logical thing is to permit other members to increase their production to compensate for Russia's deficit.
"Russia isn’t stopping them [from] meeting their production quotas. They are unable to do so because of lack of capacity," Salameh explained.
When asked about whether EU sanctions will be effective in curbing Russian oil exports by sea, the expert noted the issue is whether European countries want to shun Russian oil imports or not.
"The success of Iran and Venezuela in evading US sanctions means that EU sanctions against Russian oil can also be circumvented," Salameh said.
On Thursday, OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers are meeting to agree whether to boost production or not.
The OPEC+ production cut deal was reached in April 2020 by 23 countries, including ten OPEC members, amid the precipitous drop in oil demand as coronavirus-related shutdowns were taking place worldwide. Last August, the countries agreed to increase oil production by 400,000 barrels per day every month. The OPEC+ revised its monthly output production increase upward to 432,000 barrels per day in May.