According to data collected by AP, more than one million Democrats have registered as Republicans during the course of the past twelve months, most notably among independent "swing voters" in highly-populated suburbs, where presidential and national congressional elections are usually decided. AP in its report published on Monday said the switch also encompassed agricultural regions, poor inner cities, and small towns.
The Democratic voter mass defections coincide with Biden’s approval ratings sinking to historical lows as inflation runs at all-time highs with mid-term elections looming in November.
Meanwhile, the White House’s policies toward the conflict in Ukraine are also becoming less popular. A poll released on Tuesday by Morning Consult Global shows American support for sanctions against Russia is steadily declining - largely because of rising energy costs.
"Workers and seniors are ravaged by an inflationary curse sparked by an inept war against the fossil fuel industry," political analyst and former hedge fund manager, Charles Ortel, said when asked about the Democratic voter exodus.
The Democratic voter defections and low approval ratings, he added, could indicate Biden administration efforts to rally patriotism around his "tough" policies against Russia over Ukraine have failed.
Political commentator and historian Dan Lazare believes the fact voters are switching parties is less an endorsement of the Republican Party than a loss of confidence in Democrats, especially in their handling of the Ukraine crisis and the related rise in gas prices.
"Skyrocketing gas prices are the gift that keeps on giving - for the Republicans, that is. The war in Ukraine is turning into a Democratic nightmare as Russia continues to reap real battlefield gains," Lazare said. "So, what Democrat wouldn't lose faith given a record like that?"
Ortel said history suggests that citizens reluctantly support foreign conflicts even when leaders provide compelling evidence that the causes are justified. Not to mention, US efforts that started under the Clinton administration to push NATO eastward have never been explained nor have potential costs and complaints by the Russian side, Ortel said.
"No sane actor wants perpetual conflict," Ortel explained. "And no American would tolerate parallel expansion into Mexico or Canada by Russia."
Other Drivers of Discontent
Ortel also attributed the voter surge away from the Democrats to the party’s "intolerant" attitude, including toward those who oppose the administration’s Ukraine policies. The Democratic Party used to be a group that embraced cooperation and was tolerant of perspectives that competed with liberal or progressive views. However, in recent years that has changed, Ortel said.
"Particularly under the Obama-Biden Administration, tolerance for other viewpoints was replaced with a ‘take-no-prisoners’ approach towards any challengers," Ortel said.
To make matters worse, the analyst added, Biden administration officials propagate theories and slogans claiming they are succeeding "when even unschooled citizens see clearly that Biden and his team are rapidly wrecking the American economy and what remains of America's standing abroad."
Other drivers of voters fleeing the Democratic Party are the questions surrounding the commander-in-chief’s mental stability in light of nonstop gaffes and concerns over Vice President Kamala Harris’s capabilities, Ortel said.
"Joe Biden is clearly not playing with mental faculties intact nor is Kamala Harris fit to replace him," Ortel said.
Lazare has pointed to Biden’s dismal domestic policy record as another culprit.
"Joe Biden is The Incredible Shrinking President: His one significant success, the $1.9-trillion COVID-19 relief bill that passed in February 2021, has roundly backfired by giving inflation a significant boost. Everything else has meanwhile flopped," he said.
Meanwhile, Lazare added, voting reform is dead in the water, student debt relief is stalled, and there is a dispiriting deadlock over gun control in the wake of mass shootings.
Although the midterm congressional elections were still four months away, all signs already pointed to a historic catastrophe for the Democrats, Lazare warned.
"Predicting an election that's still four months away is risky business. But given that Biden's poll numbers are still sinking - the last is just 36%! - and given that inflation is accelerating, I don't see how the midterms can be anything less than a Democratic debacle," Lazare said.