As the Western military bloc launcheslargescale military exercises in NATO's newest member Finland not far from the border with Russia, Moscow has vowed to bolster its own defense capability in the Arctic in response.
Commenting on this situation, analyst at the MGIMO-University Institute for International Studies Nikita Lipunov pointed out that NATO has so far adopted a moderate stance on the military presence in the Arctic, with the bloc's activity being limited to North-Eastern Atlantic and Northern Europe.
He noted that while all Western Arctic powers started reassessing risks and increasing defense spending since the launch of Russia's military operation in Ukraine, the military-political situation in the Arctic region so far remains "stable and controllable."
"No one in Washington or in other NATO members' capitals is interested in uncontrolled escalation with Russia, because of the Arctic or otherwise," Lipunov remarked.
The analyst warned, however, that the deployment of NATO’s military infrastructure in Finland may pose a real threat to Russia in the long run.
Meanwhile, Ret. Col. Earl Rasmussen, a US Army veteran and an international consultant, suggested that the aforementioned NATO drills may be meant to help "integrate the newly-accessed Nordic countries."
Rasmussen also mused that NATO may be concerned about a potential "Sino-Russo type of collaboration or partnership" in the Arctic, as while China does not have any territory in the region, the Northern Sea Route – a shipping lane that may be used to transport goods from Far East to Europe across the Arctic waters – may be of interest for Beijing.
The expert added that Sweden’s likely accession to NATO in the near future is unlikely to improve stability in the region, instead increasing the odds of generating tensions and friction with Russia and perhaps even with China, given the latter’s interest in using the Northern Sea Route for trade.
Thus, argued Rasmussen, NATO expansion in region will likely “be a detriment to security and global stability.”