As political analysts and experts discuss the possible outcomes of the upcoming Modi-Biden summit this Thursday, Professor Joe Siracusa, a renowned political scientist and dean of Global Futures at Curtin University in Western Australia, told Sputnik that Washington is unlikely to impose its political will on Modi's India.
“The United States has been trying to influence India in my lifetime, for 50 years now… and they have been spectacularly unsuccessful,” he said.
According to Siracusa, the United States has long sought to twist the arm of India throughout history. Now, the two most pressing issues for the Biden administration include sanctions against Russia over its special military operation in Ukraine and further deepening the security dialogue in response to China’s increased economic and military power in the Asia-Pacific region.
However, India has remained steadfast in its quest to maintain equidistance between global power blocs. Even today, India deftly navigates its relations between Russia and the United States, much as it did between the Soviet Union and the United States in the past.
India Has No Interest in Sanctioning Russia
Prime Minister Modi's primary objective during the visit will not be to discuss imposing sanctions on Russia or engaging in geopolitical disagreements between the US and Russia, such as the situation in Ukraine. Instead, Siracusa believes, Modi will seek to secure development funding and expand the narrative of India's progress in the United States.
“Modi doesn't want to hear about putting sanctions on Russia or the like. He is there to look for development money, to expand the narrative of what he is doing in the United States. He is trying to be a very modern leader, and he doesn't want to be distracted by international relations or American quarrels with Russia over Ukraine or any place else,” the political scientist pointed out.
In essence, India seeks to maintain a delicate balance and be a significant player in the global power dynamic. It does not seek to align itself exclusively with the United States, as India wants to maintain its independence, forging its own path forward.
“India does not want to side up with the Americans at this stage, because I think that Indian scholars and Modi himself believe that America's unipolar moment has come and gone,” Siracusa said.
India's status as a major nuclear power further enhances its ability to chart an independent course. As one of the nine nuclear-armed nations, India marches to its own drummer, relying on its own capabilities rather than on the United States for nuclear deterrence or other security-related matters. Indian troops are not deployed alongside American forces around the world, underscoring India's commitment to preserving its sovereignty.
“Modi's rise in popularity and his ability to shape India's agenda make it increasingly challenging for the United States to overlook his influence and aspirations,” the Australian expert noted.
An example of India's assertiveness in pursuing its self-interest was seen during the recent G7 summit, where the United States pressed Modi on the issue of sanctions against Russia. However, Modi promptly dismissed the issue, emphasizing that the focus of the meeting was on economic matters.
“He said he doesn't want to talk about that. He said, this is not what this meeting is about, it's about economics.”
Not India's ‘Big Brother’
While non-Western media has expressed concern that the US may be trying to mold India into a "junior" partner in the Indo-Pacific region, primarily to counter China's growing influence, Siracusa argued that India has consistently pursued its independent path in dealing with China, too.
“When it comes to China, India does its own thing,” he noted.
During his visit to Washington, Modi's primary objective remains to advance India's national interests and seek avenues for economic progress. It is unlikely that he will agree with the United States on every issue, as India has its own unique approach to economic prosperity and international engagement.
“Modi will be in Washington to see what he can do for India and for Indian self-interest. I doubt he's going to be lining up with the United States on any issue,” Siracusa concluded.
The Indian government has the ability to forge its own trade agreements and relationships with the world, giving it the flexibility to chart its own course. As a result, President Biden is likely to be disappointed if he expects Modi to provide unequivocal support during the visit.
As the Indian PM prepares to embark on this crucial visit, the world watches with anticipation to witness the outcome of the Modi-Biden summit. The discussions and interactions between the leaders of these two influential nations will shape the trajectory of their bilateral relationship and have broader implications for global geopolitics.
Modi’s US trip begins in New York, where he will lead the celebration of the International Day of Yoga at the UN headquarters on June 21. On June 22, he will meet President Joe Biden in Washington DC, accompanied by First Lady Jill Biden for a state dinner. Modi will also address the US Congress and a luncheon hosted by Vice President Kamala Harris and Secretary of State Antony Blinken. He has also scheduled meetings with top executives of leading companies.