Ecosystem collapses may begin much sooner than researchers previously predicted, a new study suggests.
Catastrophic tipping points, like the melting of Arctic permafrost, the collapse of the Greenland ice sheet and the Amazon rainforest turning into a savanna grassland could happen within the next decade.
In ecological terms, a tipping point is when an ecosystem is disturbed enough that returning to its original form is no longer possible. For example, if Greenland’s ice sheet collapses, it will result in less snowfall in the northern areas of the country, ensuring that large parts of the ice sheet do not return.
But the science behind ecological tipping points is still in its early days and not entirely understood, compared to much more fleshed-out theories like climate change. Previous studies only looked at what researchers believed to be the main cause of the collapse, like deforestation in the Amazon, but did not consider lesser factors, like rising temperatures or soil degradation.
Researchers ran their simulations using only the main factor of collapse, using multiple factors of collapse and using multiple factors plus a bit of randomization to account for climate fluctuations.
The group ultimately found that when considering other factors, ecological collapse happened 30-80% quicker. Even when removing the main factor entirely, 15% of ecosystems still collapsed due to other factors.
The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change used its models to predict that the Amazon would reach its tipping point in 2100 and no amount of human intervention would be able to prevent it from turning into a savannah after that point.
But the new findings indicate that event, predicted by previous models to occur in 77 years, could actually occur between 2038 and 2077.
“This has potentially profound implications for our perception of future ecological risks,” co-author Gregory Cooper said in the statement. "While it is not currently possible to predict how climate-induced tipping points and the effects of local human actions on ecosystems will connect, our findings show the potential for each to reinforce the other. Any increasing pressure on ecosystems will be exceedingly detrimental and could have dangerous consequences.”
The findings were published in the journal Nature.