The chance for many US residents to glimpse the wonders of the aurora borealis, otherwise known as the northern lights, were squashed on Tuesday after experts retracted an earlier forecast that suggested individuals across 17 states would have the viewing opportunity.
The Geophysical Institute at the University of Alaska at Fairbanks initially announced an exciting forecast that the northern lights would be visible from the US this Thursday. States including Montana, South Dakota, Michigan, Maryland, New York and Maine were expecting to be dazzled by the auroral displays.
But Bill Murtagh, the program coordinator at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Space Weather Prediction Center, has since revealed that the “solar storm” which was supposed to make the northern lights visible, may not have ever existed.
“The chances this week [of seeing the northern lights] are slim at latitudes such as Maryland,” said Murtagh, who adds that the lights will only be visible from states bordering Canada. “In northern-tier states, you might see a glow on the horizon.”
The official further explained that the forecast mix-up may have originated from data collected about a month ago from a coronal hole that formed on the sun, and which was used to predict a geomagnetic storm set for Thursday.
Murtagh noted that if the storm does form, it will be just strong enough to create a soft glow, as opposed to a jaw-dropping spectacle as are often seen around the North Pole and the South Pole.
“There was never a big storm predicted to begin with,” Murtagh stated, adding that the NOAA did not announce a watch for the northern lights. "People love the aurora, it’s on everyone’s bucket list, and everyone wants to know when the aurora occurs, so if there’s any chance, it’ll get the attention."
“There are only a few satellites and instruments dedicated to collecting these data, so the models typically have a wide range of predictions since the observations are relatively sparse,” explained Don Hampton, a research associate professor and space physicist at the university that first made Thursday's forecast. He added that his university doesn't make long-term auroral predictions.
“While large solar storms can be seen leaving the vicinity of the sun, and their direction and speed can be estimated, once they leave the local solar vicinity they cannot be tracked. During this time the solar storms can be slightly diverted or even reduced, and the final impact on Earth’s magnetic field may be different than predicted,” Hampton explained.
But even as the lights may not be visible on Thursday, Murtagh says there is no reason to give up hope of seeing them in the distant future.
He adds that the more significant geomagnetic storms (and therefore more viewable northern lights) may occur in the next 1 to 2 years as the sun approaches its solar maximum period, which is responsible for creating more active auroras.