Investment giant Goldman Sachs is predicting there will be an “all-time high” demand for oil in 2023 that will inevitably result in a “sizable deficit” and increased prices this year.
The investment firm expects Brent crude oil to increase to $86 a barrel by year's end, up from the current price of just over $80.
“We expect pretty sizable deficits in the second half with deficits of almost 2 million barrels per day in the third quarter as demand reaches an all-time high,” Goldman’s head of oil research Daan Struyven told US media.
One reason for the deficit, according to Struyven, is a slowing of the increase of oil production in the United States, which will slow to a sequential pace of 200 barrels a day by the end of the year. Struyven also pointed to the number of declining oil rigs in the US, which has slumped to 530, the lowest number for the nation since March 2022.
The lack of an agreement at the G20 energy ministers’ meeting in India over the weekend has also hinted toward the uncertainty regarding long-run oil demand.
“Key point here for investors is, with the uncertainty about oil demand being so elevated, investors may require a premium to compensate for the elevated risk from such elevated demand uncertainty,” Struyven said.
The G20 meeting also concluded without an agreement on phasing out fossil fuels, clouding the path for society’s eventual switch to green energy.
The International Energy Agency predicted last month that global demand for oil will grow by 2.4 million barrels per day in 2023, compared to an increase of 2.3 million per day last year. This weekend, International Energy Agency Forum Secretary-General Joseph McMonigle said most of the increase was due to China and India, which he predicts will make up 2 million barrels of the daily increase.