While Russian aircraft have permission to operate within the borders of the Arab state by the Syrian government as part of the coalition against Daesh* and other Islamist forces seeking to control Damascus, American forces have no such permission and operate inside of Syria’s borders illegally.
For years, Russian and American forces, as well as those of other nations such as Turkiye, have found a way to cooperate in preventing the tense situation in Syria from spiraling into another all-out war. However, since the conflict in Ukraine began, American forces have increased their provocations, with a sharp spike coming during Ukraine’s counteroffensive that began in the late Spring.
Retired US Air Force Lt. Col. Karen Kwiatkowski, a former analyst for the US Department of Defense, told Sputnik that the increased tensions in Syria are mostly the consequence of domestic US politics, where US President Joe Biden is likely posturing as strong on foreign policy in anticipation of the coming November 2024 US presidential election, even though increasing numbers of lawmakers are becoming fed up with another “endless war” in the Middle East.
“Not long ago, the US House of Representatives voted whether or not to bring all our remaining forces home from Syria,” she said, noting that “1 in 4 Republicans and 1 in 4 Democrats voted for peace and against stealing Syrian oil. There is a lot of domestic criticism of US forces overseas, and Syria especially, and this bipartisan support to bring troops home is growing. As a result, the president and his appointees need to show that those forces are doing something ‘popular’ in Syria, and having close calls with Russia may be part of that. It helps justify whatever it is our forces are doing in northern Syria and gets the public's attention off stolen Syrian oil.”
“It also matches up with the belief of many on the Biden reelection team in DC that Biden needs to appear strong against Russia. It reflects the fundamental strategic naivete and outright cravenness of the Pentagon top brass, and people like [Secretary of State Antony] Blinken and [White House National Security Adviser Jake] Sullivan who shape our foreign policy,” Kwiatkowksi added.
“For the US government, all things ‘Russia’ are connected. Russia’s military capability has been underestimated by US policymakers, in part because they are fed offensive and imperial strategies by people employed in the defense industry who benefit personally from decisions that are not actually in the national interest, and neoconservatives who have been completely wrong with every plan and prediction they have made, but who remain influential in Congress and in all US administrations since Reagan's time in the 1980s.”
“I do think US actions in Syria are seen as a way to help support the Ukraine effort, as a Russian distraction, or a defensive effort on behalf of Syria. Many are beginning to believe that the senile US President is interested in starting World War III for personal or political reasons.”
The retired officer briefly explained what it means for a fighter jet to be “illuminated” by a target radar system.
“‘Lighting up’ a target is to acquire it on radar or other targeting guidance system. Once this happens, the next step would be to directly fire upon the target (if a target radar is in a fighter jet, armed drone, or ground air defense system) or more commonly, to assist a different weapon system in the network, located on land, sea or in air, to fire on the target from further away,” she said.
“In an active war or defense scenario, illuminating a target is followed immediately by fire, and fighter and bomber aircraft and drones are equipped with sensors that warn them if they have been acquired by enemy radar, so that they may take evasive action, and/or destroy the target radar system,” she explained.
Kwiatkowski added that “one could say it is a cat-and-mouse game, and no one intends to start a US-Russia direct war over Syria.”
Still, the retired USAF colonel described the situation in Syria as “dangerous-to-very-dangerous.”
“The chances of the US military making a mistake in playing mouse-and-cat with Russian pilots over Syria, with the excuse of hunting ISIS* or anything else, are increasing. Washington, DC, politicians - Democrats and many pro-war Republicans - are frustrated as Biden declines and may face criminal charges, Vice President Harris is assessed as unsuitable to lead, and the natives are restless. Russia shooting down a US drone in Syria could be spun in Washington and [become] an incident used to give Biden and his staff a way out of their troubles. A nice hot war, even a nuclear one, also lends itself to lockdowns and martial law here at home. For many in DC, which is both bankrupt in terms of money and of strategy, this is an acceptable and even positive outcome.”
*Daesh (also known as ISIS/ISIL/IS) is a terrorist organisation outlawed in Russia and many other states