After more than two months of heavy losses and with very little to show for it, US media is reporting on a “classified forecast” from Washington that predicts Ukraine is unlikely to meet its goals in its counteroffensive.
Citing people “familiar with the document,” media reported that the classified document focuses on Ukraine’s goal of reaching Melitopol, which it says is a principal objective of Ukraine.
One reason cited for Ukraine’s failure is the Russian minefields, which have destroyed large numbers of armored vehicles and tanks. Russian forces have also been using distance mining equipment, quickly erasing what little gains are made in the minefields by Ukrainian forces.
Melitopol is a major hub with two major highways and a railroad used to move Russian forces. If Ukraine managed to capture it, it would sever Russia’s land bridge to Crimea and split the Russian forces in the southern region of the conflict.
However, Ukraine has failed to capture the settlement Rabotino, their first major step on the road to Melitopol. In the fields east of Rabotino, Ukrainian forces suffered heavy losses, including large numbers of Western armored vehicles, giving it the nickname “Bradley Square” because of the large number of Bradley Fighting Vehicles that have been destroyed and abandoned in that area.
Ukraine recently deployed its 82nd Brigade from its reserves, said to be one of the last major fighting units available to Kiev. It includes some of the most advanced weapons provided to Ukraine from its Western benefactors, including Stryker and Marder Armored Personnel Carriers and Challenger 2 tanks. Already, Strykers have been destroyed east of Rabotino.
Between Rabotino and Melitopol sits nearly 50 miles of thick Russian defenses, and fortified settlements and cities.
The Ukraine counteroffensive largely never got off the ground. In the weeks leading up to it, significant forces attacked Russian positions but were consistently repelled leading to heavy losses for Ukraine, including Western equipment. Eventually, Ukraine admitted the counteroffensive had started but the losses continued to pile up.
Other fronts have likewise been tough on the Ukrainians. In Artemovsk, Ukraine has been putting a large portion of its best units but has failed to even reach the city. After weeks of fierce fighting and heavy casualties, they managed to enter the southern outskirts of nearby settlement Kleshcheyevka in late July, but have since been pushed out, essentially blocking any attempts to retake the city.
US media also claimed joint US, British and Ukrainian war games predicted Ukraine would suffer heavy casualties but hoped Ukrainian forces would be able to prevail regardless, effectively backing up a classified document leaked on Discord earlier this year that stated Ukraine was unprepared to take on Russian defenses.
However, it also backs up a report by Pulitzer-Prize-winning journalist Seymour Hersh who reported a US intelligence official told him the CIA informed Secretary of State Antony Blinken that the Ukraine counteroffensive is unlikely to succeed. The official also said Blinken now realizes Ukraine cannot win the conflict.
Hersh further added that the official told him US President Joe Biden’s national security adviser Jake Sullivan planned for the Jeddah Peace Summit to be a victory celebration for NATO nations. Instead, Hersh says it was a sparsely-attended event filled with most countries asking for food after the end of the grain deal.
Still, Hersh anticipates Biden will likely present a strong face to the American public even as “the end” nears. Earlier this week, the president asked Congress for an additional $24 billion in funding for Ukraine, tying it to both border security funding and disaster relief in an attempt to entice Congress amid rapidly declining support for additional aid to Ukraine from the American public.