Former US President Donald Trump has been adamant that the various indictments against him have only boosted his chances in the upcoming 2024 presidential election. “Any time they file an indictment, we go way up in the polls,” he said after being charged by the Department of Justice in a case that essentially accuses him of attempting to overturn the 2020 election.
But a new poll released Thursday indicates that may not be true - at least when it comes to the general election.
Trump holds a commanding lead in the Republican party and the poll indicates it is true that a large majority of Republicans believe Trump is not guilty of the crimes he is accused of, should he not stand trial before the general election and that the DOJ is not being fair to Trump.
Predictably, large majorities of Democrats feel the opposite on those same issues.
But what should concern the Trump campaign about this poll, are the responses from the ever-important Independent voting bloc.
Sixty-three percent of Independent voters feel Trump should stand trial before the election. More than half, 53% believe he is guilty in the DoJ’s 2020 subversion case, and a slight majority, 51%, believe Trump should face prison time while only 14% of Independents believe he should face no penalty if convicted.
Trump has consistently called the investigations a witch hunt and has maintained his innocence. The Thursday poll indicates that among Independents, most aren’t buying it. According to the poll, 64% of Independents say the Department of Justice has been fair in its indictment of Trump.
When combining all three political groups (Democrat, Republican and Independents), pro-Trump positions are in the minority overall in nearly every category.
Half of the country believes he should serve jail time if convicted, compared to just 16% who think he should face no punishment at all (16% felt probation was a suitable punishment and 12% stated that a financial-only punishment would be appropriate).
On the issue of when Trump should stand trial, a majority of all Americans, 51%, believe the trial should take place before the general election, compared to just 26% who think it should come after. Trump’s legal team requested a 2026 trial date in the DC election interference case, which would in theory allow him to pardon himself if he returns to the White House. Prosecutors have asked for a January 2, 2024, date for the trial’s start.
The first Republican primary, the Iowa Caucus, will take place on January 15, 2024.