AfD made historic gains in both states, finishing well ahead of the three parties that make up the "traffic light" coalition at the federal level. The far-right party came second in Hesse and third in Bavaria, trailing far behind the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Christian Social Union (CSU).
"On the one hand, we are pleased that the party took second place, overtaking all the parties in power at the federal level, but disappointed that at the land level the existing coalitions will likely continue to govern for another term, therefore, we cannot expect any changes to policies," Albert Breininger said.
The federal coalition partners — Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Greens and the pro-business Free Democratic Party (FDP) — all saw their worst-ever election results but their flagging popularity will not change a thing at the regional level.
In Bavaria, the center-right CSU looks likely to continue governing with the backing of the liberal-conservative Free Voters, while its sister party in Hesse, the CDU, might reconsider its alliance with the Greens after the environment-minded party suffered a major blow in what is seen as a crucial test of its support at the federal level.
"In Bavaria, most likely, the same coalition will remain in power, and in Hesse, I think it’s worth waiting, but most likely the coalition there will not change either," Breininger predicted.
The politician attributed the federal coalition's flop in the state elections to voters' growing dissatisfaction with the government's economic and migration policies.
After two years in power, Scholz's government has struggled to keep the economy afloat after joining Western sanctions against Russia. The EU's main industrial powerhouse slipped into recession in early 2023 due to high energy prices and soaring inflation.
AfD co-leader Alice Weidel said Monday that the votes were a rebuke to the federal government's policy of self-destruction and cancellation. At the same time, she said that AfD's performance at the ballot box was "a very clear vote of confidence" in her party, which has been shunned in all coalition negotiations.