A pair of CIA intelligence reports warned about possible escalation in Palestine by Hamas forces but failed to foresee the highly advanced and coordinated attack on October 7 that killed roughly 1,200 Israelis and another 150 individuals being taken as hostages, including some Americans.
According to anonymous US officials who spoke to US media and are familiar with the reports, the first intelligence record was issued on September 28 and stated Hamas may try to launch rockets towards Israel. The second report was released on October 5, just two days before the attack, and was part of a widely distributed daily summary of CIA intelligence that is shared with lawmakers. The follow-up report provided a more analytical perspective than the initial document.
Neither report was shared with US President Joe Biden nor senior White House officials, said sources who described the reports as routine and similar to other files about Palestine. One official reportedly said the September 28 report specifically warned about possible escalation by Hamas.
The reports did not mention the new tactics utilized by Hamas to great effect, including powered gliders, drones and a ground assault. Typically, Hamas shoots rockets towards Israel, the vast majority of which are taken down by Israel’s Iron Dome defense system. On rare occasions, the group employs car bombs and other tactics, but nothing on the scale or with the sophistication of what was seen last week.
Both the CIA and the White House refused to comment on the classified documents.
13 October 2023, 19:44 GMT
American and Israeli intelligence agencies regularly share information and it is unclear how Hamas prevented them from discovering their plans for the attack. Media reports claims Egypt warned Israel about a potential attack three days before the events unfolded. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has denied that report.
In response to the attack, Israel has carried out a massive bombing campaign that killed at least 1,900 Palestinians and wounded another 7,696 in Gaza and the West Bank, according to the Gaza Health Ministry.
Just before midnight on Thursday, Israel ordered civilians living in northern Gaza to evacuate to the south within 24 hours ahead of a military operation by the Israel Defense Forces in the area. More than 1.1 million people are affected by the order and the United Nations decried the evacuation, calling it impossible without "devastating humanitarian consequences."
Meanwhile, Amnesty International stated the order “cannot be considered an effective warning” and warned it may be the “forced displacement of the civilian population, a violation of international humanitarian law.”
Despite the order to evacuate, the IDF has continued air bombardments in the area. Hamas’ media office claims Israeli forces hit cars fleeing northern Gaza in three locations, a claim backed by eyewitnesses near the town of Deir el-Balah, south of the evacuation zone and where Israel told civilians to flee toward.
The attacks, which the IDF has yet to comment on, have left Gaza residents unsure of where they can be safe from bombardment.
“We don’t know if there are safe areas there,” Gaza City resident Khaled Abu Sultan told media outlets. “We don’t know anything.”
More than 423,000 people have already been displaced by Israeli airstrikes in Gaza, the UN said on Thursday. Some fear it may be a repeat of the 1948 mass exodus of Palestine during Israel’s formation. That event, called the “Nakba” or “catastrophe,” saw more than half of Palestinians removed from their homes, according to the UN.
Hamas has "adamantly" rejected the move and called the order “psychological warfare” part of "Israel's attempt to ethnically cleanse Gaza," asking Palestinians not to flee northern Gaza. "We will either live standing tall or we will die fighting," Izzat al-Risheq, a member of Hamas’ political bureau, said in a statement.