At least 24 US troops have been injured in the drone and rocket attacks on American bases across Iraq and Syria since the escalation of the Palestine-Israel conflict in early October. According to the Pentagon, there are some 2,500 US servicemen in Iraq and another 900 in Syria.
The next few days may see the Pentagon sending more military hardware to the bases even though they are not “in real danger right now,” Askari said.
If the bases are seriously attacked, the US "will unleash its forces and that would bring Hezbollah [militant group] and the Houthis directly into the fight and conditions would rapidly deteriorate," he suggested.
“The US does not want to go down that road and Iran is reluctant to get more directly involved,” the analyst pointed out.
"I don't think the US will reinforce any base in Iraq or Syria with more personnel. It would not be popular domestically in the US, but even in the case of Iraq, more [American] soldiers could lead to an immediate Iraqi demand that the US leave the country. In the case of Syria, the US will act in the same way, but for different reasons, as it may anger Russia and Turkiye," he noted.
At the same time, Askari suggested that the US "will reinforce the bases with [more] weaponry and make threats with the armada it is assembling in the Mediterranean and the Persian Gulf to deter escalation.
Asked why the US has not yet retaliated against the drone and missile strikes, the analyst said he believes Washington is "worried about the possible Iraqi reaction to more American personnel, which could cause an anti-US backlash."
Askari spoke after Washington sent the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower aircraft carrier strike group to the Persian Gulf following what Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin called "detailed discussions with President Biden on recent escalations by Iran and its proxy forces across the Middle East."
Meanwhile, the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group is currently stationed in the eastern Mediterranean to serve as a deterrent to any third party that might consider joining the conflict against Israel, according to the Pentagon.
On October 7, the Palestinian militant group Hamas staged a surprise large-scale attack on Israel, prompting the Jewish state to declare a state of war and launch retaliatory strikes. Shortly after, Tel Aviv announced a total blockade of the Gaza Strip, cutting off electricity, food, water, and gas supplies to the Palestinian exclave, as part of the IDF’s military operation Swords of Iron. More than 1,400 Israelis and over 5,600 Palestinians have already been killed in the hostilities, according to UN reports.