An analysis of presidential hopeful Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s campaign donations has revealed the independent candidate is attracting more supporters of former US President Donald Trump than supporters of current President Joe Biden, suggesting his campaign may draw from more potential Trump voters than potential Biden voters.
However, the same analysis shows the majority of Kennedy’s large campaign donations came from people who did not donate in the past two election cycles, suggesting he has galvanized an electorate not excited by the candidates offered by the two major US parties.
During the last election fundraising cycle, which ended on September 30, Kennedy raised $10 million. Nearly $2 million of that came from 2,100 donors who previously made donations to WinRed, the primary Republican party donation platform, while $1.4 million came from 1,700 donors who previously donated to ActBlue, the Democratic party equivalent to WinRed.
Both Trump and Kennedy have positioned themselves as outsiders who are willing to take on the establishment, which may explain why there is some crossover in their support. Republican 2024 contender Vivek Ramaswamy, who has likewise positioned himself as an outsider, also shares some donors with Kennedy.
Still, most of the large donors to the Kennedy campaign, 60%, have no previous donation history for either ActBlue or WinRed, showing that Kennedy may be exciting voters who previously felt left out of the recent political makeup of either party.
“No political party or candidate owns votes … Kennedy welcomes everyone into his coalition no matter who they supported in the past,” Kennedy campaign spokesperson Stefanie Spear said in a statement.
While donors make up a tiny fraction of total voters, they do tend to reflect the most active and passionate voters and can serve as a barometer of the direction of a party’s voters. However, Republicans have insisted they are not worried about Kennedy playing a potential spoiler role for the former president.
“Oftentimes people can donate to someone that they’re not even voting for just to see their argument platforms,” said Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL), a staunch Trump ally. “We’ve seen those calls among the sort of junior varsity slate of Republicans seeking the nomination, so I’m not as concerned about [donors].”
However, a Quinnipiac University poll, released Wednesday, suggests that in a three-way race, Kennedy would pull significant numbers from both major candidates, with a slight lean towards taking more potential Trump voters.
According to the poll, Trump and Biden are virtually tied in a two-candidate race, with Biden polling 47% to Trump’s 46%. However, when adding Kennedy to the race, he polled 22% while Trump dropped 10 points to 36% and Biden only dropped 8 points, to 39%. However, it is worth pointing out that the margin between the two candidates’ drop, 2% is within the poll’s margin of error of 2.4%.
As an aside, the 22% support for Kennedy would also put him over the threshold of 15% support in order to become eligible for the presidential debates. Kennedy will need to show that support in five “national public opinion polling organizations” and appear on enough state ballots to have a mathematical chance of winning the electoral college.