President Joe Biden sought to exploit the major escalation in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict on October 7 to leverage an extra $60 billion-worth of weaponry for his proxy conflict with Russia in Ukraine. His administration has packaged both into an omnibus emergency spending bill including $14 billion for Israel, which his aides are lobbying for on Capitol Hill.
But recently-elected House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), voted in after hardline Republicans opposed to more Ukraine spending ousted Kevin McCarthy from the post in a historic vote, has insisted the two funding requests must be voted on separately.
"So, yes, it will affect Zelensky's conduct of the war - bigly," US constitutional historian and political commentator Dan Lazare said on Thursday.
"If Biden can't peel away a few Republicans so that Ukrainian aid slips through, the spigot will run dry and the Ukrainian war effort will stop."
Such a move would trigger immediate catastrophe for the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) and Zelensky's ragged, corrupt and increasingly widely criticized regime in Kiev, Lazare said.
"The result will be a military debacle on the scale of Afghanistan, if not bigger," he said. "Republicans are playing a high-stakes game in which the aim is to cause the administration to collapse under the impact. They may well succeed."
International consultant and retired US Army Lieutenant Colonel Earl Rasmussen said splitting the funding would be a body blow to Ukraine though he expected the Biden administration to continue getting significant financing to Kiev.
In order to pass legislation, which is Johnson's primary responsibility, there will need to be some compromise, Rasmussen said.
"Hence, I think we will see reduced funding for Ukraine but perhaps increased for Israel depending how the conflict evolves. That is why I think we will see an increase in funding for Israel," he said.
Politically, low or non-funding for Israel would mean a quick end to Johnson's speakership, Rasmussen observed. "The Israeli lobby owns the Congress - both sides. Moreover, Israel is very important from a strategic geopolitical perspective to ensure or support their existence and independence," he said.
Media critic and political analyst Bryce Greene pointed out that even before Johnson split the aid packages for Israel and Ukraine, there had been clear signs that support for Kiev and Zelensky was waning on Capitol Hill.
"However even before this speaker nonsense, there were indications that the establishment support for Ukraine was waning. The Palestine situation has, of course, directed attention away from Eastern Europe," he said.
Trends Journal Publisher and former hedge fund manager Gerald Celente said Johnson would bow to changing political realities and cut back on funding for the Zelensky regime and its armed forces.
"Unless there is a major event that brings Kiev back into the headline news which they have not been in since the Israel War began, there will be a lot less money flowing into Ukraine," he said.
The far more powerful pro-Israel lobby would override supporters for Ukraine in its drive for priority funding, Celente stressed.
"AIPAC, the powerful Jewish congressional leaders and the Jewish Washington power brokers will make a major push for more money to Israel, and there will be a downplay in support for Ukraine as it fades from the headline news," he said.
Biden would also be forced to rein in his enthusiasm for supporting Zelensky because of the rapidly increasing financial pressures on the US economy and the dollar, Lazare pointed out.
"Biden can't continue paying for a growing number of wars with borrowed money. With interest rates rising, both sides are aware that federal finances are in serious trouble. Mike Johnson is God's way of letting Democrats know that this nonsense can't continue," he said.
Meanwhile, Senate leaders from both parties have said they are still working on a bipartisan bill to include aid for both Israel and Ukraine.