Kiev proudly announced that it worked out a deal with two unnamed US companies to start jointly manufacturing 155mm artillery ordnance in Ukraine this week.
News of this development arrived following a military-industry conference held in Washington DC on December 6 and 7, at which US and Ukrainian officials sought to find a way to ramp up weapons production to satisfy Kiev's appetite.
Ukraine’s Minister for Strategic Industries Oleksandr Kamyshin told media, however, that shell production under the auspices of the aforementioned scheme would start no sooner than about two to three years from now.
Ukrainian officials also boasted earlier this year that prominent Turkish defense contractor Baykar, the manufacturer of Bayraktar drones that are used by Kiev during the Ukrainian conflict, started constructing a drone factory on Ukrainian territory.
German weapon manufacturing giant Rheinmetall AG likewise announced similar plans recently, with its CEO Armin Papperger saying he intents to start making his first armored and infantry fighting vehicles in Ukraine in 2024.
All of these initiatives have one thing in common: they are yet to bear fruit and the efficiency of these weapon-manufacturing enterprises remains somewhat suspect at this time, considering the current situation in Ukraine.
While establishing weapons production facilities in Ukraine is by no means impossible, it is “very complicated,” argued Earl Rasmussen, a retired US Army lieutenant colonel and international consultant.
“Currently we are only in preliminary discussions or planning. Once a decision is made the facilities need to be built or if using existing facilities retrofitted to make the intended system,” Rasmussen explained. “Moreover, there needs to be supply chains established to provide needed resources to build test, deliver and maintain the systems.”
He further noted that a “trained workforce” will be required to operate these facilities, and that “it will take years to establish and ramp up such facilities.”
Rasmussen has also addressed the elephant in the room: the fact that such weapon manufacturing facilities will immediately be targeted by Russian armed forces.
“It seems that it would be much easier to prevent such facilities being constructed versus building them. Even if the location of such facilities is classified/hidden, I question how long the location would be a secret,” he said, describing the construction of such facilities as a “very poor investment decision.”
According to Rasmussen, the construction of these weapon plants will affect the flow of the Ukrainian conflict “only in terms of Western propaganda or moral support to Ukraine.”