The United States Air Force's Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) program, initially estimated to cost $96 billion, is now facing significant potential cuts.
Cost overruns could see the cost of each missile rise by up to 50 percent from the 2020 estimate of $118 million, not adjusted for inflation.
That may trigger an official review under a 41-year-old law, potentially leading to the program's termination. The revised total cost for the planned 659 missiles could approach nearly $117 billion.
The Sentinel program, managed by aerospace firm Northrop Grumman, is designed to modernize the US nuclear triad by replacing the old Minuteman III missiles first deployed in the 1970s. The program enjoys broad support from Congress — but there are concerns about rising costs.
Despite the massive financial resources at its disposal from the world's the largest military budget, America's military establishment has budget management issues which have caused significant overspend and delays in critical defense projects.
The USAF acquisition personnel have begun a review following a “Program Deviation Report” from the Sentinel program office at Hill Air Force Base. According to Air Force acquisition chief Andrew Hunter, the report revealed new issues affecting the program, including material and labor costs and the schedule for building launch facilities.
Significant delays or cost increases might strengthen the position of arms control advocates like Senator Elizabeth Warren, who favors extending the Minuteman III's service life to continuing the Sentinel program.
These escalating expenses could trigger provisions of the Nunn-McCurdy Law, potentially leading the Pentagon to reevaluate the program's viability. The review will determine if the program’s costs exceed the thresholds set by law.
The 1982 legislation requires the Pentagon to notify Congress and justify any program exceeding its original estimate by 15 percent, 25 percent, or 50 percent. The Air Force's review is expected to take about 45 days.
Should the program's costs exceed those limits, the Pentagon could be forced to ask Congress for additional funding — sparking a major debate. One of the main challenges is the immense cost of converting 450 Cold War-era Minuteman III missile launch facilities and 24 launch centers for the Sentinel, with land purchases, construction and nuclear certification expected to take nearly a decade.
The project also involves installing over 7,500 miles (12,000 kilometers) of underground fiber-optic cable to connect US missile wings in five states. The current cost per missile is roughly between $75 million and $118 million, with the latter figure representing the “Program Acquisition Unit Cost.”
The similar situation with the F-35 fighter jet further highlights the issue. The F-35 program has been plagued by delays, with expenses vastly exceeding initial estimates. The project's total lifetime cost for the entire fleet is projected to be over $1 trillion, making it the most expensive weapon system in history.
The F-35's issues have included technical glitches, production delays and rising costs, all contributing to a narrative of budget mismanagement within the military establishment. Such procurement fiascos raise questions about the budget management at the Department of Defense.