With an estimated 1.43 billion people, the People’s Republic of China seems destined to enjoy numerical advantages over the United States in any hypothetical military conflict. This summer the Pentagon announced a creative plan to address the matter, but lingering questions over the program have so far stymied progress.
The Replicator program proposed a novel solution to the larger numbers of ships, missiles, and troops enjoyed by China. Rather than matching the Asian power weapon-for-weapon, the United States would develop large numbers of autonomous drones to overwhelm the enemy.
The program seemed to offer an ideal solution as the PRC threatens to solidify military superiority over the US. The drones could be produced more quickly than traditional weapons, and their use would entail fewer US troops being placed in harm’s way. The plan would also save the United States billions of dollars.
But a chicken-an-egg problem has so far delayed progress on the initiative. The Pentagon is looking to Silicon Valley for technological breakthroughs to help shape the scope and capabilities of the program. But in the absence of guaranteed funding, private companies have hesitated to pour resources into development.
Observers believe a quarter of the two-year period for the program to be ready will have passed before a budget next spring allows tech startups to move forward.
“It’s just very disorganized and confusing,” said one anonymous tech company executive to US media, lamenting that the initiative is so far “not actually associated with any dollars to make things happen.”
Adam Broecker, vice president of Lockheed Martin’s LM Evolve program, agreed. “People will follow contracts, they will follow that command signal,” said Broecker.
For some analysts, the quandary is representative of larger problems within the United States’ defense industry. Since the 1940s, the industry has seen large-scale privatization efforts. During World War II nearly 90% of the country’s ships, aircraft, guns, and ammunition were produced in government-owned facilities.
Now, around that same percentage of items procured by the military are produced for profit. War is a big business, with private capital investing over $6 billion per year into the US defense industry.
An article in US media entitled “How America Broke Its War Machine” details the perspective of many concerning the issue. The military Keynesianism that kept factories across the country humming and helped pull the United States out of the Great Depression remains, but now, private CEOs capture billions in profits.
Additionally, defense contractors increasingly pursue contracts for “expensive, experimental weaponry” that reaps greater profits than the small arms and ammunition that are the bread and butter of any military. Consider the metaphor of large pharmaceutical companies that prefer to invest in the next blockbuster drug rather than producing penicillin.
The resulting inefficiency has been blamed for the shortages, waste, and lack of prioritization that has hampered US efforts to assist Ukraine in their proxy conflict with Russia.
But the widespread use of drones by both sides in Russia’s special military operation continues to convince officials that the technology is the way of the future. Rep. Ken Calvert (R-CA) hopes the kinks can be worked out to get the Pentagon’s new program on track.
“The department needs to define Replicator more precisely, and they have to understand there needs to be funding tied to that,” said the congressman, who serves as head of the House Appropriations Defense Subcommittee. “What do they want to do with Replicator?… We need to define that, pick it and move on it as rapidly as possible.”