The Ansar Allah movement (commonly known as the Houthis) in Yemen has begun attacking cargo ships passing through the Gulf of Aden that are either bound for Israel or are linked to Israeli companies.
Its move comes as the Israeli military continues to flatten the Gaza Strip in its quest to wipe out Hamas, killing thousands of Palestinian civilians in the process.
The Houthis have warned that they will stop their attacks only when Israel ends its military operation, connecting the maritime attacks to the Israeli campaign in the Gaza Strip.
While several shipping companies have already decided to steer their vessels clear of the Gulf of Aden, the United States has sent a carrier strike group into the region, with the option of strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen apparently on the table.
Even though the US military seems ready and willing to clash with the Houthis, the United States’ policy towards Ansar Allah and Yemen is not exactly clear, explained Bader Al-Saif, founding president at Al-Saif Consulting and an assistant professor at Kuwait University.
As Al-Saif pointed out, the war in Yemen between the Houthis and the Yemeni government backed by a Saudi-led coalition “actually started during the Obama administration” who at the time “supported the Saudi front.”
“And then came the Trump administration with an FTO terrorist designation for the Houthis. And then came the Biden administration that removed that designation. So it's kind of confusing where the US stands on this issue,” he explained.
Having suggested that a US-led naval mission is unlikely to “solve the issue at hand,” Al-Saif argued that the United States needs to “go after violent non-state actors” and to “be clear about their intentions.”
“They need to go back to the root cause that the Houthis are using, which is the Gaza war, who are claiming that their conduct is because of the Gaza war,” he added. “Everyone in the world has been calling for a ceasefire. The only two or three countries that have not include the US and Israel.”
Al-Saif also warned that if the United States “escalates against the Houthis now, that's going to lead to another wave in expanding the war” in Yemen, and no one – “neither the US, nor the Houthis, nor the Saudis” – really wants that.
“So everyone is minding his own turf and trying to play a tit-for-tat approach, one by one. So if something happens here, something will happen there. We've seen this on various fronts outside Gaza. We've seen it in southern Lebanon. We've seen it in attacks on US bases in Iraq and Syria,” Al-Saif surmised.
Meanwhile, Hasan Unal, professor of political science and international relations at Ankara Baskent University, pointed out that an attempt by the United States to “mess” with Yemen “would basically open up Pandora's box,” considering the likelihood of Houthi’s ally Iran becoming involved in such a scenario.
“Whether it is going to be a military operation against the Houthis to remove them from power, then that would require Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates not only consent, but their actual collaboration. And any such operation would bring Iran into the picture, because, after all, the Houthi regime is one of Iran's main allies in the region. So it is a very iffy situation,” Unal remarked.
According to the professor, it remains to be seen exactly “what shape the US action is going to take.”
“So whether or not countries like Turkiye would take part in such an operation, all is iffy basically,” he added.