US Assistant Secretary of State for Energy Resources Geoffrey Pyatt openly stated earlier this year that the United States’ goal is to “kill” the Arctic LNG 2 project, and that the US is “doing that through our sanctions, working with our partners in the Group of Seven and beyond."
In response, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said this week that “The situation around Arctic LNG 2 once again confirms the destructive role of Washington for global economic security.”
US sanctions against Arctic LNG 2 may be an attempt by the Biden administration to garner support, argued Thomas W. Pauken II, a geopolitical commentator and consultant on Asia-Pacific affairs. Biden's approval ratings in the US have been sagging amid the prospects of the American economy heading for a "downturn."
“If he can get the energy exporters, the producers from the US to somehow support Biden, this could prove helpful. So it's just politics more than anything else,” Pauken elaborated. “The US is headed in the direction of more trade protectionist measures. And this is just yet another example of that.”
According to Pauken, the Arctic LNG 2's foreign stakeholders apparently participated in the project under the impression that their involvement would not incur repercussions in the form of US sanctions.
Now that the US imposed such sanctions, this is going to sow “mistrust” between the United States and the parties involved in the project, and this situation is going to “harm the US image.”
“This is a big story, that you have friends of America who are losing out big money in this deal,” Pauken observed.
He also suggested that as Russia realizes that it cannot rely on Europe and Japan for business partnership in light of the US sanctions pressure, it will likely forge closer economic relations with other countries such as India, Mongolia and Central Asian states, not to mention deepening its already close ties with China.
“I think the problem is Washington keeps thinking that they can do these things and sets sanctions and pushes these measures and thinks that everything's going to have good results from them in the long run. But in reality, it just forces other countries to adapt to these circumstances in order to make new solutions. And Washington is very slow to figure it out,” Pauken mused.
Meanwhile, Nikita Lipunov, an analyst at the Institute for MGIMO Institute for International Studies, pointed out that Arctic LNG 2 foreign stakeholders have so far only suspended their participation in the project and are now mulling the associated risks. US sanctions are expected to come into effect on January 31.
“Foreign participants of Arctic LNG 2 [deem] there will be losses either way: if they give up their share in the venture and future LNG shipments or if they ignore the US’ secondary sanctions and suffer the consequences,” he said.
Lipunov also deemed as “unlikely” the odds of the US destroying the Arctic LNG 2 project, considering Russia’s “vast experience in running large international economic projects while under sanction pressure.”
He noted that, while the French and Japanese participants of the project may end up pulling out of the venture under pressure from the US, there is still a chance that the Chinese companies involved may not follow suit.
“In light of the 12th package of the EU sanctions that, among other things, include a ban on liquefied petroleum gas imports from Russia, Moscow should reorient shipments to the east where the demand is growing, and to seek new markets in other regions. That will take time, but Russian commodities will definitely find their buyers,” Lipunov added.