Iran used missiles and drones to attack what it described as terrorist bases in Pakistan’s province of Balochistan located near the border with Iran this week, effectively conducting a cross-border strike on Pakistani soil.
The attack elicited an angry response from Pakistan which, in an apparent tit-for-tat move, carried out strikes against targets in Iran’s Sistan and Balochistan province located near the border with Pakistan. These strikes were also supposedly aimed at terrorist assets.
While these attacks took place far away from Yemen where the United States is carrying out missile strikes of its own in futile attempts to bring the Houthis to heel, all these events are bound by a common narrative, argued Stanislav Tarasov, a political observer and Mideast specialist.
The exchange of strikes between Iran and Pakistan, alongside the statements made by Tehran and Islamabad, highlighted the presence of Balochi separatists in both of these countries.
The Balochi people, Tarasov explained, sought autonomy for themselves since around 1960s, and the subsequent discovery of oil, gas and other natural resources in the areas they live in led the Balochi to believe they now have what they need to build their own sovereignty.
The problem is, any Balochi attempts to build a sovereign state would be regarded as separatism by Iran and Pakistan, which do not seem willing to part with the territories where the Balochi people live.
Iran’s attack, as Tarasov put it, came after certain “external forces” played the “Balochi card,” as Tehran apparently traced the recent terrorist attack in Kerman to Balochi militants and retaliated.
According to him, it seems that it is the United States is trying to use the separatism factor to bog down Iran and limit Tehran’s ability to interfere in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict via Hezbollah. Tarasov also speculated that it was Western influence that caused Pakistan to escalate the situation via a retaliatory strike.
The Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and the US’ efforts to thwart them may also have a detrimental effect on Iran, he suggested.
Even though the Houthis justify their attacks on Israeli-linked ships in Red Sea by claiming solidarity with the Palestinians suffering at the hands of the Israeli war machine, Tarasov claimed that the Yemeni movement has ulterior motives and pursues its own objectives by entering into direct confrontation with the United States and its allies.
He also noted that the disruption of shipping through the Red Sea, while bad for Western economies, also “undermines the economy and power” of the Persian Gulf states.
“It is a very complex picture with various narratives and different hidden motives. But, essentially, there is a process of degradation of the geopolitical situation all across the Greater Middle East. But the origins of all this, of this situation, can lie in the beginning of the war between Hamas and Israel,” Tarasov postulated.
On the other hand, Mahjoob Zweiri, a professor in contemporary politics and history of the Middle East with a focus on Iran and the Gulf region at Qatar University, argued that Iran’s strikes on Pakistani territory has nothing to do with the Gaza crisis but a lot to do with the terrorist attack in Kerman.
According to him, Tehran believes that a Balochi separatist group called Jaish ul-Adl, with some foreign backing, was responsible for the blasts that killed around a hundred mourners.
“Of course, Iran perceived that what happened, is being generated or supported by the United States, but unfortunately, according to them, those two groups benefited from Pakistani soil,” he said, adding that he sees no connection between this situation and the crisis in the Red Sea.